Who are the rebels who overthrew Assad in Syria? Key questions answered – Nationally
After more than five decades in power, the al-Assad dynasty in Syria was overthrown on Sunday when President Bashar al-Assad fled to Russia and rebels seized the capital Damascus.
Assad’s departure marked a dramatic end to his nearly 14-year struggle for power as his country was torn apart by a brutal civil war.
While the rebel coalition has several factions, the group believed to be leading attacks across Syria is Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham, or HTS.
What is Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham?
According to the United States National Counterterrorism Center’s list of foreign terrorist organizations, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) is an alliance of “Sunni Islamist groups” based in northern Syria from Jabhat al-Nusrah, or “Nusrah Front.”
That is al-Qaida‘the former branch in Syria.
The group’s leader, Abu Mohammed al-Golani – translated as al-Jawlani and al-Jolani – broke away from al-Qaida in 2016. The US National Counterterrorism Center says the break happened because of “strategic disagreements.”
In 2017, the Nusrah Front merged with other anti-Assad groups in Syria to form Hayat Tahrir al-Sham.
Joseph Varner, The deputy director of the Conference of Defense Associations, said to al-Golani, al-Qaida has gone too far.
“The point of departure was that they found that al-Qaida and ISIS are very violent and they don’t care about civil rights,” Varner said.
The US State Department designated Hayat Tahrir al-Sham as a terrorist organization in 2018, a designation it still holds today.
Who is Abu Muhammad al-Golani?
Al-Golani’s relationship with al-Qaida dates back to 2003, when he joined insurgents fighting US forces in Iraq. The Syrian native was arrested by US forces but remained in Iraq, according to the Associated Press.
At that time, a splinter group of al-Qaida called the Islamic State of Iraq, led by Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, was established.
In 2011, an uprising in Syria against Assad resulted in brutal government repression and led to civil war. Al-Golani’s prominence grew when al-Baghdadi sent him to Syria to establish the Nusrah Front.
Get the latest country news
For news that affects Canada and the world, sign up for breaking news alerts delivered directly to you as they happen.
The US government has put up US$10 million for him.
In 2013, the Associated Press reported that al-Golani rejected al-Baghdadi’s calls to disband the Nusrah Front and merge it with al-Qaida’s operations in Iraq, to form the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria, or ISIS.
Al-Golani however pledged allegiance to al-Qaida, which later split from ISIS. In 2016, he again broke with al-Qaida.
When he entered Damascus after his victorious battles on Sunday, he dropped his name and went by his real name, Ahmad al-Sharaa, the Associated Press reported.
“Syria deserves an institutionalized governing system, not one where a single ruler makes decisions arbitrarily,” he said in an interview with CNN last week, hinting at the possibility that HTS will eventually be disbanded after Assad’s fall.
“Don’t judge by words, but by actions,” he said.
Ferry de Kerckhove, a former Canadian ambassador and former Canadian ambassador to Egypt, said the West may have to sit down with al-Golani.
“He has $10 million in money that the American people are holding on to. I don’t know how he will be received in different palaces in Europe and in the states, but I think they will have to withdraw that one because it is clear that he is a leader,” said de Kerckhove.
What are the early signs?
Since breaking away from al-Qaida and ISIS, al-Golani has sought to distance himself from both groups.
Evren Altinkas, an adjunct professor at the University of Guelph, said al-Golani targeted not only the Assad regime, but also ISIS as his enemy.
“Al-Golani understood the fact that if he continued to insist on his original Salafist Islamist ideology, he might not get the full support of the Western media and world public opinion,” he said.
Altinkas said al-Golani has been pushing a message of moderation.
“(He wants to) tell the world and tell the countries of the region that he is no longer what he was before, and he wants to create a unified, stable democracy in Syria. However, it will be under the guidance of an Islamic state. “
De Kerckhove said the first signs from al-Golani were encouraging.
“His first step, which I recommend, was to allow the government to continue running the show,” he said, referring to HTS’s decision to allow Syrian Prime Minister Mohammed al-Bashir to continue working.
Although his future as an extremist leader has worried observers, many have been paying attention to what he has said in recent times.
In a recent interview with CNN, al-Golani said that they will ensure that Christians and other religious and ethnic groups will enjoy rights in Syria after the overthrow of Assad.
“He says all the right things to give you hope,” Varner said.
He added, “You’re just a swallow. He swore allegiance to Zarqawi (Abu Musab al-Zarqawi) and then to Baghdadi (Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi) and broke away from both and founded his own movement. Now he is trying to look like an officer. He’s a guy who changes with the times.”
HTS has controlled the northwestern Syrian province of Idlib since 2018.
Those who see it say it could be a precursor to how they will govern Syria.
“Based on the reports we’ve been getting in that region, they’ve been unfair to other groups in the region,” said Altinkas.
However, he added that it is not enough to find out how they will manage a few people in a large area. Many minority-ruled areas saw people leave for other parts of Syria or abroad during the civil war, he said.
HTS, which Altinkas said is seen as backed by Turkey, will also have to control the Kurdish-controlled northern parts of the country to avoid an escalation of the conflict.
He said, “I believe that Syria is a powder keg that could turn into more conflicts and proxy wars in the coming months if al-Golani can achieve his goals by uniting all these parties and establishing a democratic government through elections.”
The civil war in Syria has been raging since before the establishment of HTS.
So how did HTS manage to do what rebel groups couldn’t do for 14 years?
Varner said it was a question of timing, with Assad’s allies busy with other conflicts.
“The Russians are very busy with Ukraine. Iranians are deeply disturbed by what is happening to Hezbollah. And I think Hezbollah is very damaged,” he said.
“Those three things set the conditions for the rebel forces to march on Damascus. The Syrian army did not want to fight. After 14 years, they didn’t want to play this game. All the chickens came home to roost and the government fell.”
-via files from the Associated Press
