As Israel is leading an airstrikes campaign in Lebanon that is one of the worst wars of the 21st century, it is unclear what, if anything, can stop it. Successive blows to Hezbollah, the biggest thorn in the region, have crushed the militant group; it continues to fight, but seems unable to prevent Israel’s rapid expansion.
Now the Lebanese are waiting in tents to see the full extent of Israel’s intentions in Lebanon, and how far Tel Aviv’s war machine will go. The number of dead has reached more than 2,000 and an estimated 1.2 million have left their homes in a country with more than five million people.
Before Israel’s latest escalation, Hezbollah and Israel had been locked in a tit-for-tat exchange for nearly a year. The group began firing rockets at Israeli positions on Oct. 8, 2023 in cooperation with Gaza.
Israel has been pressing ever since for a solution that would push Hezbollah back to the “green border,” the Lebanon-Israel border, and allow tens of thousands of Israelis who were uprooted from northern communities to return home safely. Hezbollah has said it will stop firing rockets only if a ceasefire is reached in Gaza. Meanwhile, it believed that its ongoing conflict with Israel was under control, and within the so-called “rules of the game” that had held between Hezbollah and Israel since their last major war in 2006.
Hezbollah was clearly wrong. As Israel decided to cease fire in Gaza, it chose to increase military pressure on Lebanon. Beginning on September 18, Israel blew up thousands of jammed pagers and walkie-talkies of Hezbollah members and launched a devastating bombing campaign in areas south of Beirut and south and east Lebanon. In the targeted strikes, Israel also removed most of the party’s leadership, including Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah. Now the Israeli army has launched a ground attack in southern Lebanon.
Israel’s military intelligence campaign against Hezbollah has targeted the group. Even as Israel’s attacks continued to come, Hezbollah failed to retaliate, or to launch precision-guided missiles that were considered the most powerful deterrent.
The Israeli attack was reportedly met with heavy fighting from Hezbollah, as well as eight IDF soldiers. they have been killed. But in the air over Lebanon, Israel can now be seen bombing at will; any pre-existing inhibitions are broken. Beirutis are forced to wait anxiously for an official Israeli dispatch to X informing them which buildings and city blocks will be hit. Many of the attacks have targeted central Beirut. Elsewhere in the city, Israeli drones circled loudly overhead. In southern Lebanon, Israel ordered residents to move further north—now above the Awali River, more than 40 miles from the southern tip of the country.
Read more: ‘We Can’t Predict What Israel Will Do.’ Inside Lebanon’s Fear and Chaos
In a speech following Nasrallah’s death, deputy leader Naim Qassem stressed that Hezbollah will not stop shooting or abandon Gaza. He also emphasized that the group still has medium and long range missiles. Yet Hezbollah appears to have used these weapons sparingly, if at all. Was that a conscious strategic choice? Or is Hezbollah too moved to use these arms?
Hezbollah’s forces are independent, and will continue to fight Israel’s attacks. But no one knows, in reality, how much Israeli strikes have degraded these units and their military infrastructure, including tunnel networks. Now these forces may come under Israeli bombardment and artillery fire as the IDF tries to advance.
The important question is what the fate of Israel will be. It is possible that Israel is trying to make Hezbollah bloody and its base popular enough to try to negotiate a diplomatic deal with a criminal offense over the Blue Line. But given the military’s major gains in recent weeks, it may also be trying to impose a unilateral solution—potentially taking parts of southern Lebanon and turning the area into a wasteland. However, it is not clear how this type of defense would stop Hezbollah’s rocket and missile attacks in northern Israel, as the group has long-range weapons.
The US is unlikely to block Israel’s war against Hezbollah; in fact it seems to support it silently. Biden Administration officials have stopped short of confirming commitments that Israel’s attacks will be “limited,” but Israel has crossed Biden’s red lines in the past.
Whatever the outcome of the Israeli ground attack, Lebanon is now facing an open Israeli aerial bombardment campaign. Years of Israeli airstrikes in Syria suggest that, if Israel senses that it no longer faces a real deterrent, it will strike at suspected enemy targets at will.
Lebanon was already in crisis before 12 months ago—still reeling from the worst economic crisis in modern history amid a years-long political impasse. Israel’s endless war is the last thing the country needs.
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