What is the legacy of Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador? | Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador News

As Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador approaches the final hours of his presidency, debate is already heating up about the legacy the Mexican leader, better known as AMLO, leaves behind.

Limited to a single six-year term under the Mexican Constitution, AMLO will leave office on Monday with an approval rating that has not dipped below 60 percent.

The once dominant political parties in Mexico were ignored by the growth of his party, the Morena Party, and his successor, President-elect Claudia Sheinbaum, won the country’s elections in June.

“Lopez Obrador is leaving power with a very high level of popularity, which is very different from what happened in previous governments,” Pablo Piccato, a professor of Mexican history at Columbia University in the United States, told Al Jazeera.

But Lopez Obrador’s time in office has been more controversial than his broad popularity suggests, and his final weeks in office have seen protests against many of the reforms his government has pushed through.

While supporters credit AMLO with dramatic reductions in poverty through policies such as raising the minimum wage, labor reforms, and welfare payments, critics accuse him of eroding democratic oversight and failing to address rights abuses and insecurity.

“AMLO has always said that his government represents a break with the past, that it is a new regime,” Piccato said, noting that Lopez Obrador also saw his administration as a departure from the pro-market neoliberal political philosophy.

“However, things are not that simple.”

Poverty reduction

Lopez Obrador often says that his government has brought about the “fourth revolution”.

That contrasts well with his tenure as president and previous periods in the country’s history — independence from Spain, the era of liberal reforms, and the Mexican Revolution — that dramatically changed Mexico.

Supporters point to the economic changes that have taken place during AMLO’s tenure as evidence that his administration has brought another historic step forward from the past.

“The best area of ​​AMLO’s administration has been labor reforms and reducing poverty and inequality,” Viri Rios, a Mexican academic and analyst, told Al Jazeera. “About 5.1 million people moved out of poverty between 2018 and 2022, the most significant reduction in poverty in more than 20 years.”

He also noted that the president introduced a series of economic policies, such as doubling the country’s minimum wage and tripling it in areas near the American border where many companies are building production centers. His government also instituted labor reforms that aided unionization efforts.

But while AMLO has positioned himself as a champion of the poor who has challenged the country’s establishment and business interests, some in Mexico debate how revolutionary his reforms have been.

Although Lopez Obrador has expanded programs such as pension payments and cash transfers, Mexico’s public spending remains the lowest of all OECD countries. The monetary policy in the country also remains stuck.

“If you look at the amount of taxes that Mexico collects as points of GDP, it is about 16 percent. That’s a lower level than the Bahamas,” said Rios. “There is not enough tax collection, and AMLO has not fixed that.”

Ongoing security issues

On issues of crime and security, Lopez Obrador has attributed his success to continuity rather than change. While the country’s missing loved ones continue to seek justice and Mexicans suffer staggering levels of violence, AMLO says trends have remained stable under his watch.

Data from the World Bank shows that the country’s homicide rate dropped from 30 ​​per 100,000 people in 2018 when AMLO came to office, to 28 per 100,000 people in 2021. In 2022, Mexico recorded 32,223 murders, a decrease of almost 10 from the previous year.

However, those figures still underline the depressing reality facing many Mexicans.

A 2024 study by the National Institute of Statistics and Geography found that more than 73 percent of people reported feeling unsafe, with nearly 22 percent saying there had been homicides in their area.

Accountability for perpetrators of violence – by gangs and the state itself – is also rare, as around 95 percent of murders remain unsolved.

AMLO first campaigned on a promise to move away from the military approach to crime that fueled violence under previous governments.

But instead of rolling back military rule, Lopez Obrador expanded the military’s power over public security and hired the military to help with infrastructure projects and administrative tasks, even giving it control of ports and airlines.

Last Wednesday, the Mexican Senate passed a controversial bill that puts the National Guard, previously under civilian control, in the hands of the military.

“Anyone in the National Guard will only face military law, and their courts, military justice prosecutors, and decisions and sentences that will not be disclosed to the public,” Will Freeman, a fellow in Latin American studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, a US-based think tank, told Al Jazeera.

“The military, with its control over National Guard operations, will likely have some veto power over security decisions made by civilian leaders,” he added.

A distinctive style

The growing relationship between the president and the military also brought him into conflict with the country’s lawyers who disappeared.

According to a rough government estimate, 113,000 people are still missing in Mexico, many of them victims of criminal groups, state security forces, or both.

As a candidate, Lopez Obrador had promised accountability for abuses, such as the disappearance of 43 students from a teacher’s college in Ayotzinapa in 2014. International investigators accuse the military of obstructing the investigation and playing a role in what may have happened.

But once in office, AMLO has embarrassed activists and relatives of the missing by supporting military-style events – a position that has sparked widespread anger and protests.

He also announced that his government would reexamine the official number of missing people in Mexico, calling the current figures incredibly high. Human rights groups and lawyers say they may be small.

“The dispute over Ayotzinapa broke the relationship between the victims and the president. That’s when the alliance was broken,” Guadalupe Correa-Cabrera, a professor of politics and government at George Mason University, told Al Jazeera.

Volunteers organized efforts to search for the bodies of their missing loved ones until they were attacked by AMLO, who accused the searchers of being motivated by the “delirium of necrophilia”.

Those words are typical of Lopez Obrador’s rhetoric, which critics say has contributed to a growing sense of polarization in Mexican politics.

“AMLO is always badmouthing his opposition, the media, civil society, and even human rights institutions,” said Rios, an academic. “He has a eloquent way of dealing with anyone who opposes his agenda.”

Conflicting changes

That bias has been on display in Lopez Obrador’s final weeks in office, as the legislature enacts a series of reforms long sought by the president.

The biggest controversy so far has been the constitutional change that will make judges stand for election.

Critics say the move will politicize the judiciary and undermine democratic checks and balances, while supporters say it will make judges more accountable to the people.

The final vote took place earlier this month after protesters stormed the Senate chamber, disrupting proceedings and chanting “the trial will not end!”

The bill passed the Senate on September 11 by a vote of 86 to 41, clearing what was seen as the most important obstacle to reform.

It was not the first time AMLO’s critics they accused him of consolidating control over private institutions. Last year, protesters again took to the streets to protest changes to the National Electoral Institute (INE), which oversees Mexico’s elections.

But while critics see a trend of democratic backsliding and the erosion of institutional freedoms, AMLO and his supporters have introduced reforms as part of a struggle against entrenched, powerful interests.

“The regime of corruption and privilege is each day left far behind in the past and a true democracy and a true rule of law are created,” said Sheinbaum, who succeeded Lopez Obrador, in a social media post celebrating the passage of the legal reforms.

Now, as AMLO prepares to leave office, his supporters and opponents believe that Lopez Obrador’s political vision will continue to shape the country’s direction.

As his Morena Party gains power in Congress and Sheinbaum prepares to take his place, the outgoing president’s lasting legacy may be the reshaping of Mexican politics that has taken place under his watch.

“Earlier, several parties were in power and no party was in complete control of the Congress. Now the group of Lopez Obrador has been able to establish a large party,” said Piccato. “That’s a new thing, and a lot of people are very concerned about that.”