TThe sacrifice of fruit vendor Mohamed Bouazizi 14 years ago inspired the Tunisian people to overthrow their entrenched dictator and started the Arab Spring of 2011. Of all the countries in the region that caught the revolutionary bug, Tunisia was the only one that managed to create a multi-party democracy with separation of powers and freedom of expression, for a while it became the poster child of successful democracy.
Then came President Kais Saied, an unenthusiastic constitutionalist, who was elected in 2019 on an anti-corruption platform played by the Tunisian people after political upheaval and economic stagnation. Five years later, the birthplace of the Arab Spring has become the scene of a terrifying backsliding of democracy.
The first major sign of trouble was in 2021, when Saied used the COVID-19 pandemic to centralize his power. The Tunisian President suspended the constitution, fired his Prime Minister, and used emergency measures to rule by decree. In 2022, he went ahead, dissolved parliament and rewrote the constitution. Persecution of opposition politicians, critics, activists, journalists and trade union leaders has increased since then. That includes Rached Ghannouchi, leader of the opposition Ennahda Party; Lotfi Mraihi, head of the Republican Union Party; and Abir Moussi, president of the Free Destourian Party. All three are now behind bars on trumped-up charges.
With Saied’s term set to expire on October 23, the Tunisian tycoon is seeking another five years as President in a new election that he postponed to October 6. But since he has spent all of his time dismantling democratic checks and balances, consolidating power, and vexing tensions, this is a contest you will not be free or fair.
All loyalists who would challenge Saied have been imprisoned, feared exile, or excluded from the race. On September 2, Tunisia’s supposedly independent electoral commission—seven members appointed by the President—approved only two anonymous candidates, in violation of an order by the country’s highest court to allow three others to run. One of them, Ayachi Zammel, has been arrested and charged with voter signature fraud (it is not clear if he will be allowed to run for office).
Despite public concern about Saied’s spontaneous drift, he remains popular. His anti-immigrant and anti-establishment rhetoric resonates with a large segment of the population who believe that democracy has done nothing to improve their standard of living.
Saied’s greatest vulnerability stems from the worsening social and economic conditions many Tunisians have experienced under his rule. After all, the one thing people dislike more than a dictator is a dictator who fails to deliver.
Although Saied has so far been able to pay off Tunisia’s bloated foreign debt without resorting to a much-needed IMF loan, this has come at the cost of inflation, slow economic growth, and frequent food and fuel shortages. The government is increasingly turning to borrowing from the once sovereign central bank and local banks to meet its growing financial needs, which will fuel inflation and create financial risks. As economic challenges increase, citizens’ trust in their government will decrease. The demands for change will increase. Protests and repression may follow. Perhaps there will be appeals for new elections.
But Tunisians will get little help after Kais Saied’s re-election—and illegitimately—in October cements Tunisia’s independence and marks the definitive end of the last democratic experiment of the Arab Spring.
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