Pennsylvania Senate race labeled ‘plunge’ to last-minute change by top handicapper

A major political handicapper changed his ratings Monday in a key Pennsylvania Senate race, signaling a diminution in Democratic Sen. Bob Casey’s re-election chances.

Revealing two changes in the ratings nearly two weeks from Election Day, the Cook Political Report showed heightened competition in both Pennsylvania and Nebraska, where an independent candidate is threatening to unseat the incumbent Republican.

In Pennsylvania, the race between incumbent Casey and Republican challenger Dave McCormick is now considered a “Toss Up,” according to the handicapper. Battle was previously rated “Lean Democrat.”

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Cook cited McCormick “developing the GOP base and making gains in the western part of the state,” as part of his overhaul. It also noted that although Casey has several points over his opponent in the general election, the race is reported to be within the margin of error of internal Democratic and Republican polls.

Casey’s race is now in the same category as Senate races in Michigan, Ohio and Wisconsin.

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Casey only leads McCormick by single digits. (Bastiaan Slabbers/NurPhoto via Getty Images)

The change in ratings comes as the presidential election between former President Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris is tied in a battleground state. With split-ticket voting becoming increasingly rare, it’s more likely that whichever party wins the White House will also win the Senate race.

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McCormick was endorsed by Trump. (Jeff Swensen/Getty Images)

Casey beat McCormick among likely voters 48% to 44% in the latest New York Times/Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena College poll. The poll of 857 Pennsylvania voters was conducted between Oct. 7 and 10. The margin of error was +/- 3.8 points.

Republicans also succeeded in the changes in the estimates, and the race of Sen. Deb Fischer in Nebraska moved again to show a strong, fast-growing race. Matching changed from “Almost Republican” to “Lean Republican.”

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Osborn, left, is challenging Fischer’s bid for re-election, running as an independent. (Reuters)

Independent Dan Osborn, a union leader and mechanic, appeared to be surprised by Fischer’s re-election campaign because of his popularity just weeks into the election. There is no Democratic nominee in this race.

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Despite the significant challenge, “we still think the red government is winning, the GOP is attacking Democratic efforts to subtly promote Osborn and get Fischer to the finish line,” Cook wrote.

Fischer’s re-election bid is now in the same stage as Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas.

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