WThousands of pagers and other wireless devices exploded simultaneously across Lebanon and parts of Syria this week, killing at least 15 people and injuring thousands of others, in what one Hezbollah official described as “the biggest security breach” by the Iran-backed militant group. . who experienced almost a year of war with Israel. In an era filled with violent attacks across the region—from Israel’s assault on the Gaza Strip to the targeted assassinations of military leaders in Iran and Lebanon—this was perhaps the most sophisticated and daring yet.
Hezbollah has confirmed that eight of its fighters died in the explosions that occurred on Tuesday, according to the BBC. Another such explosion, this time involving two people’s radios, was reported on Wednesday. Civilians have not been spared from this attack. At least two children died in the explosions on Tuesday, according to the country’s health minister, and thousands of others were injured, some seriously. Iran’s ambassador to Lebanon lost an eye due to an explosion, according to a report New York Times.
Officials in the US and elsewhere have left little doubt about who might be responsible. Hezbollah and Lebanese officials immediately pointed the finger at Israel, which in addition to waging its ongoing war with Hamas in Gaza has also been in almost daily exchanges with Hezbollah across its northern border with Lebanon since October 7. Earlier this week, the Israeli government announced that. was expanding its war to include the return of its northern citizens who were displaced from towns near the country’s northern border shortly after October 7—a goal that the country’s defense minister, Yoav Gallant, said would be achieved through “military action.” ” A few days ago, Lebanese citizens across the border received leaflets from the Israeli military ordering them to leave the area. The Israeli military has since confirmed the deployment as an “unauthorized act,” and said no further deployments are underway.
Still, professional observers warn that the attack, and any retaliation that may follow, could raise the prospect of a wider war. Here are the six biggest questions—and answers—that remain.
How did the explosion start?
Hezbollah’s widespread use of pagers—hardly considered a high-tech means of communication by most standards—was primarily a security measure. It is reported that a group of soldiers ordered their members to refrain from using mobile phones earlier this year due to concerns that they could be easily tracked. In their place they were given AR-924 pads, thousands of which were sourced from a Taiwan-based brand called Gold Apollo. Although the company confirmed that it has licenses to use its brand in these pagers, it denied playing a role in their production, which it said was done by a Budapest-based company called BAC Consulting.
Footage from one of the explosions—which TIME could not independently verify, but which was deemed credible by the BBC—showed the moment one of the pagers exploded, sending out smoke and causing the man who appeared to be carrying it to fall to the ground. .
Experts who spoke to TIME said this was not a cyber attack. Rather, it may have been the result of being imported into the supply chain, which shaped how the pagers were made and who was most involved. “The explosion may have been caused by pre-installed explosives, which may have been activated using a radio signal, as simple as the paging system itself,” said Lukasz Olejnik, an independent researcher and consultant in cyber security and privacy. “Procurement may be compromised at some point, either at the factory or during delivery.”
Although such a task would be difficult to carry out, it is not beyond the power of a country like Israel. “It’s clear that Israel is still the intelligence master in the region,” Andreas Krieg, an associate professor of security studies at King’s College London, told TIME, noting that it “has an unparalleled intelligence network and experience.”
What does Israel say about it?
Israel has a long history of repelling sophisticated attacks of the type seen in Lebanon. But like the recent assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Iran, they are rarely held accountable. When TIME asked about Israel’s involvement in the pager explosion, a spokesman for the Israeli military refused to confirm or deny that the country was behind the attack, giving only a two-word answer: “no comment.”
But experts say all the obvious signs point to Israeli involvement. “No one benefits from it, but Israel, in terms of crippling Hezbollah,” Krieg said, noting that the militant group has been Israel’s most dangerous threat for at least the past three decades. “There are a lot of people who don’t like Hezbollah in the region, including Arab countries,” he adds, “but none of them have the ability to do something as complicated as this.”
Why now?
There could be a number of reasons why Israel would choose to launch this attack now. One theory, quoted from top intelligence sources and reported by Al Monitorit was that the vulnerable status of the pagers was in danger of immediate detection. Another thing is that Israel was probably hoping that this attack would be a deterrent following the recent revelation that the country’s security forces thwarted Hezbollah’s attempt to kill a former Israeli security official using a remote detonated explosive device.
There is also the possibility that Israel, after evacuating its people who had fled to their homes in northern Israel amid its military objectives, sought to pressure Hezbollah to withdraw its forces from the nearby Israel-Lebanon border.
Although some observers fear that this attack could have been launched as a prelude to an Israeli military attack in Lebanon, Krieg says that this escalation would not be beneficial to either side, despite the recent comments of the Israeli Defense Minister. “This is the disability of [Hezbollah] not being able to communicate effectively is certainly something that can be a preparation, the first step, for such an operation,” he said. “But I don’t think that’s possible.”
Will Hezbollah retaliate?
Hezbollah vowed on Wednesday to continue its war against Israel to “support Gaza,” and warned that Israel would face a “heavy toll” as a result of the pager attack, which it called a “massacre.” The leader of the armed group, Hassan Nasrallah, is expected to give a speech about the attack on Thursday.
How are governments around the world responding?
A State Department spokesman, who declined to comment on the allegations that the attack was carried out by Israel, confirmed that the US had no prior knowledge of the attack, telling reporters on Tuesday that Washington was not aware of it and did not know whether it was involved in the attack.
“That’s probably true because I think it is [Biden] the administration will try to negotiate with them, because they will say it is escalating,” Michael Allen, former director of the National Security Council under President George W. Bush, told TIME.
Across the Atlantic, EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrel condemned the attack in a statement, warning that it “endangers the security and stability of Lebanon, and increases the risk of escalation in the region.” He did not mention Israel in the statement, preferring to urge all participants to “avoid endless war.”
The Iranian government, which supports and finances Hezbollah, condemned the attack as a “terrorist act.”
Is this attack a war crime?
Although the attack may have been aimed at pagers used by Hezbollah, that does not mean that those who carried them were armed soldiers. “It is clear that Hezbollah is a fighting wing, but Hezbollah is it [also] it’s a political party, it’s a charity, it’s a community organization as well,” said Krieg. “Therefore, this pager system would have been distributed among civilians – people who are not fighters, who have no part in the war effort, and are targeted.”
It is for this reason that the use of the booby trap is prohibited under international law. “The use of an explosive whose exact location was not reliably known would be unlawfully indiscriminate, using an attack method that would not be directed at a specific military target and would therefore attack military weapons and civilians indiscriminately,” Lama. Fakih, who is the director of Human Rights Watch based in Beirut, Middle East and North Africa, in a statement. “
“The simultaneous targeting of thousands of people, whether civilians or members of armed groups, without knowledge of who was carrying the targeted equipment, their location and the surrounding areas during the attack, violates international human rights law and, where applicable, international humanitarian law,” it said. Volker Turk, the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, in a statement on Wednesday, added that those who ordered and carried out the attack “must be held accountable.”
Source link
