Moldovans will vote in an important presidential election contest. But voter fraud threatens democracy

CHISINAU, Moldova (AP) – Moldovan historian and politician Octavian Ticu remembers the collapse of the Soviet Union in the early 1990s, an earthquake that helped him become one of the first novice boxers to fight for his country at the pinnacle of his sport: the Olympics.

“It was an exciting time for me,” recalls the 52-year-old, as he wrapped his fists in a boxing gym in the capital, Chisinau. “In 1996, I participated in the Atlanta Olympics. … If I had been in the Soviet Union, I would not have accomplished this.”

But today, more than three decades after declaring independence, Moldova is being targeted by Russia in a mix of propaganda and lies that is “causing havoc,” Ticu, a former lightweight contender, told the Associated Press.

Like Ukraine and Georgia, the former Soviet republic aspires to join the European Union but is caught in an ongoing tug-of-war between Moscow and the West.

“Russian propaganda is real in the 30 years since independence,” added Ticu, who has written several books on the history of his country.

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This story, supported by the Pulitzer Center for Crisis Reporting, is part of an ongoing Associated Press series covering threats to democracy in Europe.

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In the national survey of Oct. 20, the people of Moldova voted with a razor majority of 50.35% in favor of finding a path to EU membership. But the result was overshadowed by allegations of a Moscow-based vote-buying scheme.

In the presidential election held on the same day, Pro-Western Acting President Maia Sandu received 42% of the vote, but failed to win an outright majority. On Sunday, he will face Alexandr Stoianoglo, the former prosecutor-general of Russia, in a series that is considered an option among the country’s conflicts – again.

As with the EU polls, a poll released this week by research firm iData shows a tight race on Sunday that hinges on a narrow victory for Sandu, an outcome that could hinge on a major breakdown in Moldova.

The role of the president carries significant power in areas such as foreign policy and national security.

After two October votes, Moldovan law enforcement said the vote-buying scheme was orchestrated by Ilan Shor, an exiled oligarch currently living in Russia and convicted in absentia in 2023 of fraud and money laundering. Prosecutors say $39 million in cash was paid to more than 130,000 recipients through a Russian bank authorized worldwide by voters between September and October. Shor denies any wrongdoing.

“These people who went to Moscow, the so-called government-in-exile of Ilan Shor, who came with large sums of money, were left wandering,” said Ticu, a long-time candidate for the party. the presidential race.

“It was clear,” said Ticu, that the votes “could not be fair or democratic.” Of the 11 contestants in the first round, he was the only one who nominated Sandu for the runoff.

Voters from Moldova’s breakaway Kremlin region of Transnistria, which declared independence after a brief war in the early 1990s, can legitimately vote in Moldova. Transnistria has been a source of tension during the war in neighboring Ukraine, particularly as it is home to a military base with 1,500 Russian troops.

Ticu warned that if Russian troops in Ukraine arrive in the port city of Odesa, “they can join the Transnistrian region, and the Republic of Moldova will be taken over.”

In Gagauzia, an independent part of Moldova where only 5% voted for the EU, a doctor was arrested after allegedly forcing 25 residents of a home for the elderly to vote for someone they did not choose. Police say they have found “compelling evidence,” including the transfer of funds to a sanctioned Russian bank.

Anti-corruption authorities have carried out hundreds of searches and seized more than $2.7 million (2.5 million euros) as they try to dismantle it.

On Thursday, prosecutors raided the headquarters of a political party and said 12 people were accused of paying voters to choose a presidential candidate. A criminal case was also opened where 40 employees of a government agency were accused of being bribed in the election.

Instead of receiving the overwhelming support Sandu had hoped for, the results of both races exposed the Moldovan judiciary as unable to adequately protect the democratic process. It also allowed pro-Moscow opponents to question the authenticity of the votes.

Igor Dodon, the leader of the Socialist Party and a former president with close ties to Russia, said this week that “we do not see” the results of the referendum, and called Sandu a “dictator in a skirt” who will “do whatever it takes.” staying in power.”

Sandu admitted that the vote was subject to unprecedented fraud and foreign interference, which undermined the results, calling the interference a “vicious attack” on Moldovan sovereignty.

“If the judiciary does not wake up … if they close their eyes to selling the country, the future of Moldova will be in jeopardy for decades,” he warned.

Moldova is one of the poorest countries in Europe and has been hit hard by inflation since the start of the war. Tatiana Cojocari, a Russian foreign policy expert at Chisinau-based WatchDog, says this means many citizens can become “victims of electoral corruption” for relatively little money.

“In Russia, it is very important to have as many resources as possible to work with. It creates confusion, informationally and politically,” said Cojocari, adding that Russia “has turned a little bit from the tactics of the Cold War and is using them skillfully, now practiced in social media.”

Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Moldova applied to join the EU. It was given the chancellor position in June of that year, and in the summer of 2024, Brussels agreed to begin membership negotiations. The West’s sharp turn angered Moscow and seriously damaged relations with Chisinau.

Since then, Moldovan authorities have repeatedly accused Russia of waging a “mixed war,” from brutal disinfection campaigns to protests by pro-Russian groups to vote-buying schemes that undermine national elections. Russia has denied meddling.

Social media played an important role in spreading Russian propaganda in Moldova, said Andrei Rusu, a media monitoring expert at WatchDog. “One of the big lies is that if Moldovans join the EU, they will fight against Russia, they will lose their faith and traditional values, or they will be forced to follow LGBT propaganda,” he said.

Moldovans who lived in the Soviet Union, he added, can see Russian propaganda about the EU and the West, and distinguish between real videos and those produced by artificial intelligence, such as those that often appear online showing Sandu.

In recent weeks, Meta and Telegram have removed many fake accounts that attack the EU and Sandu, and express support for pro-Russian groups.

However, Moldovan observers warn that Moscow’s main target could be the 2025 parliamentary elections. Declining support for the pro-Western ruling Party of Action and Solidarity suggests it could lose its majority in the 101-seat legislature.

“We are already waiting for the parliamentary elections to see other tactics and strategies,” said Cojocari, a Russian analyst. “This government will no longer be able to … get a majority in parliament.”

Back at the boxing gym, Ticu warned more must be done to combat foreign interference, or face the “danger of hybrid governance” with pro-Russian forces.

“Very good laws have been adopted, but they are not implemented,” he said. Russian President Vladimir “Putin does not want a war in Moldova, he wants to show the world and Europe a case where the policies of European integration have failed.”