Modi’s promise of Kashmir statehood. Poll talk or real access? | Election News

Srinagar, Indian-administered Kashmir – As Kashmir prepares for the final phase of local elections on Tuesday, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has pledged to return the disputed territory to a “region” that was wrested from his Hindu government five years ago.

“We promised in the parliament that Jammu and Kashmir [official name of Indian-administered Kashmir] we will become a country again,” Modi said, addressing a crowd in Srinagar, the biggest city in the disputed Muslim region.

Only the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) will “fulfill this responsibility”, he said without elaborating.

Modi’s latest election comes amid widespread anger in Kashmir at the BJP for removing the region’s limited autonomy and relegating it to a federal state in 2019.

The move is also a target of indirect attacks from Kashmir-based groups, who have made the restoration of special status and statehood their main poll agenda.

The specter of New Delhi’s collective decision to scrap the region’s special status, meant to protect the region’s culture and demographics, still lingers in the polls.

Anti-India sentiment has run deep in the disputed Himalayan region, which has seen decades of armed insurgency. India has accused Pakistan of supporting the rebels – a charge denied by Islamabad. Both South Asian neighbors claim Kashmir in full but have ruled parts of it since independence from Britain in 1947.

So, what will be the nature of the promised kingdom? What power will the newly elected assembly have? And can Kashmir’s unionist political parties, technically, fulfill their poll promises?

How does the Indian state structure work? Where does Kashmir fit in?

The late Professor Kenneth Clinton Wheare, an Australian scholar and expert on the British Commonwealth constitution, described India as a “quasi-federal” country.

“It is about to change the situation: a united state with the characteristics of a federal state under the province with the characteristics of a united state,” he noted, which means that although power is concentrated in New Delhi, the provinces are allowed to govern and legislate in accordance with the conditions of the region.

The Constitution of India defines the country as a “Union of States”, and divides the power-sharing, legal framework into three lists: the Union List, which includes disbursements such as defense and funds available only to parliament; The State List, which includes powers such as police and public health that can be written by the states; and the Mutual List, which includes areas such as marriage, education, and forestry, which can be legislated by both.

But Kashmir’s relationship with New Delhi was different and complicated since it joined the Indian union in 1947 with a set of conditions, which were included in Article 370.

Under the terms of the instrument of accession, Kashmir gave India the power to manage matters of foreign affairs, defense, and communications – and left New Delhi with limited legislative power.

While successive governments in New Delhi have gradually eroded those powers, Kashmir has retained its separate constitution, flag and freedom to enact laws on permanent residence and property ownership, and has retained state-sponsored opportunities only for state officials.

What happened in a special situation?

On August 5, 2019, the Modi government abrogated Article 370, fulfilling the BJP’s long-standing promise to remove this special status, which it said was causing political crisis and regional division.

New Delhi has also divided the region into two federal territories: Jammu and Kashmir bordering Pakistan to the west, and Ladakh bordering China to the east.

On the same day, Amit Shah, India’s home minister and a confidant of Modi, told parliament that, unlike Ladakh, “statehood” would be restored to Jammu and Kashmir.

To prevent the protests from erupting, authorities arrested thousands of Kashmiri leaders and activists and imposed a months-long communications blackout – a move criticized by the opposition and human rights watchdogs.

This decision was also immediately challenged in the supreme court of India, which finally approved the move in December last year and called for the return of the same state as any other Indian state – which does not have separate rights of independence – “as soon as possible.”.

But just weeks before the first state assembly elections, the Modi government gave its handpicked chief more powers, and narrowed the scope of the incoming legislature.

“In the last five years, all Kashmiris have seen a proud state and the absence of important sections of local government,” said Anuradha Bhasin, editor of Kashmir Times and author of A Dismantled State: The Untold Story of Kashmir after Article 370.

“New Delhi has suppressed this area with a history of unrest. There are worrying, scary signs,” he told Al Jazeera.

Addressing a poll rally in Jammu region, Rahul Gandhi, the leader of the opposition in parliament, took a dig at the local administration saying “non-locals are running Jammu and Kashmir”.

“Your right to democracy has been taken away. We have prioritized the need for the restoration of the state,” he said while addressing the crowd. “If [the BJP] if they fail to restore the state of the state after the election, we will put pressure on them to ensure that.”

What power will the elected government have in Kashmir?

Political observers and Kashmiri analysts see the election as a referendum on the BJP’s controversial decision — and a reflection of the two unverified alliances to rule the legislature under the central government.

While groups in Kashmir have tried to restructure their politics and calls for the restoration of special autonomy and “dignity”, experts told Al Jazeera that the newly elected government will have to work at the mercy of the Lieutenant Governor (LG), the constitutionally appointed head. it is New Delhi under the current setup.

Under the revised framework after August 2019, the LG will have more influence than the elected assembly and will also manage “public order and police” issues. The government will also not be able to introduce any finance bill without the nod of the LG, holding the assembly as a virtual prisoner on financial matters.

The LG now controls greater governance, the anti-corruption agency, the appointment of the Advocate General and law enforcement officials, and is involved in matters of prosecution and punishment.

“The elected assembly will be under the thumb of the Lieutenant Governor, the power of the head of government is reduced without appreciable independence from the government,” Siddiq Wahid, an academic and political expert, told Al Jazeera.

The events of August 2019, Wahid said, “completely stripped us (of) our improved self-governance, disintegrated the regime and left it without democratic representation for six years”.

The state promise by the BJP, he added, was merely a “cap-giving” gesture. “We can put a cap on our heads, but it doesn’t mean anything,” he said, adding that “the immediate objective is to oust Delhi from direct political control over the state.”

Even if the BJP restores nationalism to Jammu and Kashmir, the situation is still open to changes to suit New Delhi’s needs, said Sheikh Showkat, a senior Kashmiri analyst.

What are the options before the pro-India groups?

Pro-India Kashmir groups accused the BJP of denying Kashmiris their democratic rights and promised to restore Article 370 and full sovereignty.

Showkat said he had seen “deep resentment and deep mistrust” after August 2019 between Kashmiris and New Delhi. But despite the enthusiasm he saw among regional political party cadres, Showkat said the next government “will be a kind of metropolitan council”.

“It may deal with day-to-day administrative and domestic matters but it cannot go beyond that,” he said. “It will always depend on LG’s ideas and wishes.”

That is a fact that has never escaped the political ranks of the region.

The last two elected chief ministers of Indian-administered Kashmir, Omar Abdullah and Mehbooba Mufti – who lead the National Conference (NC) and the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) respectively – initially denied taking part in the election citing reduced powers.

But both Abdullah and Mufti withdrew their decision to boycott the polls fearing that the BJP might benefit from their non-participation.

Shokwat, an analyst, said the Kashmiri parties were faced with “two dire options: participation in the elections gives New Delhi authority but not going would give the BJP a margin in the government”.

He also reiterated the decision that the new assembly could pass the reorganization of the old regime in August 2019 – an important key missing, as required under the constitution.

“Whoever comes to power,” said Showkat, the new government “will use the means to legitimize or ratify the decision of August 2019”.

Will the status quo of Kashmir be restored?

Conflict between the elected government and the LG is not new in India. In Delhi, the Arvind Kejriwal-led government has fought multiple court battles, protested on the streets, and campaigned for more control of the legislature.

That also gives a glimpse of future conflicts in Indian-administered Kashmir, said Bhasin, the organizer. “The way the BJP is maintaining control, I don’t see that it has a very different vision of governance in Jammu and Kashmir.”

Even before the abrogation of Article 370, Kashmir’s first leader Sheikh Abdullah was arrested in 1953 for supporting a UN-sponsored plebiscite in Kashmir. He was released after 11 years in prison and after surrendering power in New Delhi. Over the past decades, the rights guaranteed under Article 370 have been taken away by nearly 47 presidential orders.

In August 2019, the BJP claimed to have put the final nail in the coffin.

But Bhasin painted a pessimistic political vision as he revealed unprecedented abuses of media freedom and human rights.

“The hands of the clock never go backwards. Whatever has been taken from the people, in terms of independence or their democratic rights, has never been returned. I doubt that will change anytime soon,” Al Jazeera said.