‘Major setback’: Why India’s Congress lost to Modi in key state elections | Election News

New Delhi, India – Four months after losing its parliamentary majority for the first time in a decade, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) secured a record third in the northern state of Haryana and achieved its best-ever performance in Indian-administered Kashmir, marking a dramatic turnaround.

The results of the two northern state assembly elections announced on Tuesday also represent a major setback in the opposition Congress’ campaign to end the BJP’s dominance of Indian electoral politics since 2014, political analysts told Al Jazeera on Wednesday.

The Congress-led opposition Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA) won 234 seats in the parliamentary elections, the results of which were announced in June, forcing the BJP – which won 240 seats in the house where the majority mark was 272 – to rely. to his allies the government.

But in Haryana, the Congress lost the election despite exit polls predicting a comfortable win amid anger against the state’s BJP government among sections of the population, including farmers and champion boxers.

India’s oldest party also recorded its worst performance in Jammu and Kashmir in the first legislative elections when New Delhi stripped the region of its autonomy in August 2019. However, Congress will still be part of the next government in Kashmir as its constituency. alliance, the National Congress (NC), outbid the BJP to secure the numbers needed to lead the next administration.

After the BJP lost its majority in parliament in June this year and had to rely on the support of its allies to form the government, “Congress saw itself returning to ‘revival momentum’ in the assembly elections”, Rasheed Kidwai, a political analyst. , he told Al Jazeera.

“But the results showed Modi’s BJP booster, now with oxygen to feel more confident in New Delhi, and [the victory in Haryana] it gives the BJP a boost in the upcoming crucial elections. “

Four key states – the national capital of Delhi, Maharashtra in the west, and Bihar and Jharkhand in the east – are scheduled to go to polls in a few months.

Wars within

In the results of the last parliamentary elections, the Congress won five of Haryana’s 10 seats – the BJP won the other five. It was a big change from the last general election, held in 2019, when the BJP swept all 10 seats.

But in the state elections, the main opposition party “failed because of the internal differences between the leadership of the Congress and the state, and the battles that exist in the state parties”, said Asim Ali, a political researcher and author.

According to data from the Election Commission of India, the BJP’s vote share in the state has increased by 3.4 percent to 39.89 percent compared to the 2019 state elections. The Congress’s margin was huge – from 28.08 percent to 39.09 percent. However, a closer look reveals that the opposition’s gains were recorded in the vote shares of other regional parties, not the BJP’s support base.

As a result, the BJP won 48 seats in the latest state elections, an increase from the 40 seats it won in 2019, while the Congress won 36, up from 31. The majority of marks is 46 in a meeting with 90 members.

“We have literally lost because of our differences and the arrogance of the old soldiers who refused to vacate any area,” said a senior politician who is a senior member of the Haryana Congress wing, requesting anonymity.

“From nominations to campaigning, Haryana Congress was taken over by the Hooda family and disappointing results are ahead,” they said, referring to former chief minister and Congress leader Bhupinder Singh Hooda.

Although the differences in the government unit were not a secret, Ali, a political analyst, said the central leadership of the Congress was gambling by betting on Hooda’s politics based on divisions that appealed to the voters of Haryana’s large Jat community, which has influence in nearly 40 seats. On the other hand, “the BJP’s local-level election management seems to have done the math”, added Ali.

“The inability of the Congress to properly reform paints a worrying picture of the lack of central leadership, especially the ability to try to make difficult changes at the government level,” said Ali.

Meanwhile, in an unprecedented move, the Congress has refused to accept the Haryana results, alleging manipulation of electronic voting machines (EVMs) to rig the results. “[The results] oppose the existing reality,” said Jairam Ramesh, spokesperson for the party.

No leading political party in India has refused to accept election results in India before.

“[The BJP’s] the victory of deceit, the overthrow of the will of the people and the defeat of transparent, democratic processes,” he said, adding that they would file complaints with the polling agency and continue to fight against it. “The Haryana chapter is not yet closed.”

Bittersweet for the opposition in Kashmir

In the first votes cast in Kashmir since New Delhi revoked the state’s autonomy, the state’s NC emerged as the largest party, winning 42 seats in the 90-member assembly.

The result was hailed as a mandate against the BJP’s combined reduction of state legislative power, bureaucratic overreach, and continued suppression of people’s freedoms, political analyst Sheikh Showkat told Al Jazeera.

The NC fought the election in alliance with the Congress; the national party won six seats, including one in Jammu, the lowest ever in the Hindu-dominated southern region of the contested state.

The BJP, on the other hand, failed to open its account in the Kashmir valley but maintained its strong base in the Jammu region, winning its best 29 seats – and coming away with a huge vote share of 25.5 percent overall, followed by the NC. with 23.4% of the votes. The voting percentage was lower in Kashmir valley than in Jammu region.

A major divide between Hindu-majority Jammu and Muslim-majority Kashmir, the two states of the administrative unit, has determined the electoral politics of the region.

“We are not happy with the BJP’s work over the years and their decision to remove Article 370. Business has been affected and the government has not done anything,” said KC Chalotra, a 67-year-old voter from Jammu. he told Al Jazeera. “But I still voted for them because we want a Hindu chief minister.”

That may not happen, as former Chief Minister Omar Abdullah of NC may once again head the government.

Disappointed with the results, Chalotra added, “The BJP has got a strong mandate from us, but still the NC will form a government with no one to represent our region.”

Abdullah confirmed that Jammu region will be represented in the government, and in X greeted Modi, saying that the NC-led government “will look forward to a constructive relationship in the true spirit of federalism so that the people of J&K can benefit from continued development.” [and] good governance”.

There were intense celebrations outside the Congress office in Kashmir valley. The party will be part of the next government, “but in reality, they are sitting on the fringes and not getting a voice in Jammu and Kashmir,” said Showkat, a Kashmiri political analyst.

The results of the two assembly elections will also be heard in the corridors of the Congress in New Delhi, said Kidwai, a political analyst, especially Rahul Gandhi, a scion of the Gandhi family that has ruled the country for decades and led the Congress even more. long. Gandhi is the current leader of the opposition in parliament.

After the big gains in the parliamentary elections, “Gandhi wanted to push the Congress case forward”, said Kidwai. “But the results now force them to return to the story of the alliance”, he added, referring to Gandhi’s promotion of the story of the success of the Congress alone, and not of the INDIA coalition that is undoing the BJP.

Ali, a political analyst, agreed. “Congress has completely exhausted its new power after the general election,” he said. “And it has positioned itself as a weak opponent ahead of the crucial upcoming elections” in four states where the party will be dependent on regional allies.

“These results have shown that the Congress is not yet equipped to face the BJP directly,” he said.