Irish elections see a possible return of the incumbent Fine Gael-Fianna Fail coalition

Irish exit polls suggest centre-right parties are likely to form a coalition government, although vote counting continues on Sunday and left-wing Sinn Féin is still in the running.

Centre-right Fine Gael was the first choice of 21% of voters, while another far-right party, Fianna Fáil, had 19.5%, according to the Ipsos B&A poll, which asked 5,018 voters across the country how they voted. .

The two parties, which governed in coalition before the election, will need the support of smaller or independent parties to win a majority in the 174-seat Dail, the lower house of Parliament.

The centre-left opposition party, Sinn Féin, had 21.1% support, according to the poll, with a margin of error of plus or minus 1.4 percentage points.

IRELAND IS VOTING IN THE NEAREST ELECTIONS WHERE THEY ARE IN CONFIDENCE FOR A COOPERATION IN POWER.

The two centre-right parties are unlikely to see the 88 seats needed to secure a majority, and coalition talks could drag on for weeks as Europe braces for a possible shake-up brought by the return of President-elect Trump.

Sinnn Féin won a surprise victory in the 2020 election, leading the popular vote, but was shut out of government because Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael refused to cooperate with it, citing their left-wing policies and historic ties to the Irish Republican Army over three decades. violence in Northern Ireland.

Although Sinn Féin, which aims to reunify Ireland and an independent Irish Republic, would be the largest party in the Dail, it may be difficult to find enough coalition partners to form a government. During the election campaign, both Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil insisted they would not enter government either.

Fianna Fáil could get up to 48 seats and Fine Gael 39, leaving them surrounded by 88 seats, former Trinity College Dublin political science professor Michael Gallagher told RTE, citing vote tallies.

The clear candidates for the coalition will be left-wing parties between Labor and the Social Democrats, which Gallagher said could take eight seats each, according to Reuters.

A Sinn Fein-led government will shake up Irish politics – and the future of the United Kingdom. The party is already the largest in Northern Ireland, and the Sinn Féin government in the Republic will push for a referendum on Irish reunification in the next few years. Party leader Mary Lou McDonald said Sinn Féin had “broken the political mold” in Ireland.

“Two-party politics is now gone. It’s been put in the dustbin of history, and that alone is very important,” he told the Associated Press, as he awaited the results at a counting center in Dublin. “The question that arises now for us is, what do we do about that?”

Sinn Féin leader Mary Lou McDonald walks to the polls at Deaf Village Ireland (DVI) on Navan Road, Dublin, as voters head to the polls in Ireland’s 2024 General Election, Friday Nov. 29, 2024. (Niall Carson/PA via AP)

Polling only gives an indication and does not reveal which parties will form the next government. Ireland uses a complex system of proportional representation in which each of the country’s 43 constituencies elects a minority of legislators and voters rank the candidates of their choice. As a result, it may take some time for the full results to be known.

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The cost of living – particularly Ireland’s dire housing crisis – was a prominent topic in the three-week campaign, along with mass migration, which has become an issue in the country of 5.4 million people that has long been defined by migration.

The election results will show whether Ireland bucks the global trend of layoffs after years of pandemics, international instability and cost-of-living pressures.

Ahead of polling day, analysts said the most likely outcome was another Fine Gael-Fianna Fáil coalition. That is always a possible option. The frontrunners to become the next Taoiseach, or prime minister, are current Taoiseach Simon Harris of Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil leader Micheál Martin – despite their parties’ lackluster showings. Harris, Martin and McDonald all won re-election to their parliamentary seats in results announced on Saturday.

Irish Prime Minister and Fine Gael leader Simon Harris, centre, accompanied by his wife Caoimhe and children Cillian and Saoirse, votes at Delgany National School, County Wicklow, as voters go to the polls in the general election on 2024 in Ireland, Friday Nov. . 29, 2024. (Niall Carson/PA via AP)

Fine Gael candidate Paschal Donohoe, who is a minister in the outgoing government, said the main body of the election was “some of the things that have been caught by the establishment.”

“The big picture is that, at a time when incumbent governments across Europe are struggling to get re-elected, the two main parties in this government, particularly Fine Gael, will do a solid job,” he told the newspaper. AP.

The Green Party, which had 12 seats in the last parliament and supports the ruling coalition, admitted it was headed for a disappointing result.

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Among the large number of independents is respected organized crime boss Gerry “the Monk” Hutch, who has seen a surge in support since being granted bail on money-laundering charges in Spain this month to run for office.

Early results suggested he had a good chance of winning the seat in Dublin.

Reuters and The Associated Press contributed to this report.