How much of a difference can Iran’s regional allies make in the war? | Israel attacks Lebanon News

As the fear of an endless war between Israel and Iran grows, it is clear that the United States is supporting its long-time ally, Israel. But how much influence would Iran’s allies have in the war between the two?

Last year, Yemen’s Houthis began frequent attacks on ships linked to Israel in the Red Sea, Gulf of Aden and Bab al-Mandeb Strait, in cooperation with the Palestinians and in opposition to Israel’s war in Gaza.

Since Israel killed longtime Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in a major airstrike in a residential area of ​​Beirut last week, there have been numerous threats across the region.

Following the killing of Nasrallah on Friday – which was confirmed by Hezbollah the following day – Houthi spokesman Yahya Saree warned in a televised address that the Houthis will continue their attacks until Israel stops attacking Lebanon and the Gaza Strip.

He said the group was targeting Israeli military bases in Tel Aviv and the Red Sea port of Eilat with drones.

Since then, the Shia armed groups in Iraq and the Houthis in Yemen have continued to target Israel with missiles and drones.

But Israel’s military has repeatedly said its defense systems – aided by the US, Jordan and other countries – have played a major role in attacks launched by Iran and its allies. They stressed that the attacks, including Iranian missiles aimed at Israel on Tuesday, had caused little damage so far.

Sina Toossi, a senior fellow at the Center for International Policy think tank based in Washington, DC, said she believes Israel has minimized the damage caused by the Iranian strikes, but it is “still a good sign” because it eases political pressure on Israel as well. the US to retaliate and create a situation where they don’t have to attack in a big way.

“It reinforces the need to stop fighting. If the Biden administration had been able to stop all these months ago, we wouldn’t be here but going down this scary path.

“I think no side wants this [war]but when it comes down to it, [Iran and its allies] threatening to prevent that from happening.”

Oil – ‘an important point of contact’

Toossi said the “crucial point” of Iran and its allies is the oil facilities in the region.

“[Iraqi armed groups] they have been threatening that if Israel launches a major attack right now – Israel has also threatened to attack Iraq – that they will hit back, including the oil facilities in the region,” Toossi told Al Jazeera.

“If energy exports to the Persian Gulf are disrupted in a big way, it will affect the global oil market, the global economy, Europe.”

Oil facilities have long been targets of all sides and strikes on them can cause major disruptions. In September 2019, the Houthis said they carried out drone attacks on two major oil fields owned by Saudi Aramco, the state-owned oil giant of Saudi Arabia, an attack the US blamed on Iran.

In just one strike, a reported 5 million barrels per day of crude production, nearly half of Saudi Arabia’s production, or 5 percent of the world’s oil.

“We saw the Houthis before they stopped fighting the Saudis – they were going deep into Saudi Arabia,” Toossi said.

Iraqi armed groups warned on Tuesday that US bases in Iraq and the region would become targets if the US takes part in any retaliation against Iran or if Israel uses Iraqi airspace against Tehran.

Similarly, when it comes to the US bases in the region, including Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Bahrain and the use of Iranian airspace, Iran has warned that those regions will be considered as participating in the attack of Iran, and their important infrastructure will be targets again, said Toossi.

Can armed groups attack Israel itself?

Andreas Krieg, a national risk analyst and associate professor at the School of Security Studies at King’s College London, said that Iraqi armed groups do not have the ability to strike Israel from afar and do not have the weapons that other groups such as Hezbollah and the Houthis have.

Designed primarily to disrupt the US coalition forces during the Iraq war, “it is mainly in the area of ​​the rebel army, it is asymmetric and cannot make a big difference in Israel”, Krieg told Al Jazeera.

Hezbollah, on the other hand, has a global network in which it operates with bases all over the world including in Saudi Arabia and West Africa, making them “very dangerous for Israel because [they] they can attack Israelis overseas,” said Krieg.

Krieg added that the missiles or drones fired at Iraq may have been used by Iranians in Iraq, not by Iraqi forces.

“It is easier to attack Israel from Iraq, than to attack Israel from Yemen or from Lebanon now. “You can use Iraq as a platform, but the infrastructure needs to be built,” he said.

Last month, the Houthis launched their deepest ever missile strike, reaching Tel Aviv and central Israel, as they targeted the military base in Jaffa.

The Houthis said Israel’s defense systems were unable to stop their hypersonic missile, which reached central Israel in 11 minutes from 2,000km away and started fire in an open area about 11km from Ben Gurion Airport.

Nasreddin Amer, deputy chairman of the Houthi media authority, said in X that “20 missiles failed to intercept” the missile.

Israel said the missile was damaged, but not destroyed by an Israeli interceptor missile.

Nine people received minor injuries, according to an Israeli official.

Trouble in the Red Sea

Krieg said he believes that the closure of the Bab al-Mandeb Strait by the Houthis is still the most direct effect they have had so far, as their missiles fired at Israel have been blocked.

Betul Dogan, an assistant professor of international relations at Ankara University, told Al Jazeera that the Houthis’ hijacking of maritime commerce did not have much effect in terms of stopping Israel’s war in Gaza, but provided “some insecurity”.

“They make Israel feel insecure – I think this is their main goal and success right now,” he said.

“We know that Iran can send missiles but if they use the Houthis, it’s like they have an extra layer in their capabilities.”