How long can we live? Research says life expectancy is likely to increase significantly – National
Humanity is reaching the upper limit of life expectancy, according to new research.
Advances in medical technology and genetic research – not to mention large numbers of people reaching 100 years of age – do not translate into significant jumps in life expectancy, according to researchers who found a decline in longevity in countries with the longest populations.
“We have to be aware that there is a limit” and perhaps re-examine ideas about when people should retire and how much money they will need to survive, said S. Jay Olshansky, a researcher at the University of Illinois-Chicago who was the lead author of the book. a study published Monday by the journal Nature Aging.
Mark Hayward, a University of Texas researcher not involved in the study, called it “an important addition to the literature on human mortality.”
“We’re reaching a plateau” in terms of life expectancy, he agreed. It’s always possible that some success could push survival to the top, “but we don’t have that right now,” Hayward said.
Life expectancy is a measure of the average number of years a child born in a given year can expect to live, assuming that the death rate during that period remains constant. It is one of the most important health measures in the world, but it is also imperfect: It is a summary measure that cannot account for deadly epidemics, miracle cures or other unexpected events that could kill or save millions of people.
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In the new study, Olshansky and his research colleagues tracked life expectancy estimates for the years 1990 to 2019, taken from a database managed by the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research. The researchers focused on eight places in the world where people live the longest – Australia, France, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, South Korea, Spain and Switzerland.
The US doesn’t even rank in the top 40. But it was also included “because we live here” and because of the past, bold estimates suggest that life expectancy in the US may increase significantly this century, Olshansky said.
Women continue to live longer than men and improvements in life expectancy are still occurring — but at a slower pace, the researchers found. In 1990, the average rate of growth was about 2 1/2 years per decade. In 2010, it was 1 1/2 years – and almost zero in the US
The US is particularly problematic because it faces many problems that kill people even before aging, including drug overdoses, shootings, obesity and inequality that make it difficult for some people to get adequate health care.
But in one calculation, the researchers estimated what would happen in all nine areas if all deaths before the age of 50 were not eliminated. The best growth was only 1 1/2 years ago, Olshansky said.
Eileen Crimmins, a University of Southern California gerontology expert, said in an email that she agrees with the study’s findings. He added: “To me personally, the most important problem is the sad and declining state of the United States.”
Why life expectancy may not be able to rise forever
Research suggests there is a limit to how long most people live, and we’ve hit it, Olshansky said.
“We are shortening our life in this technology that extends life. And the reason is that aging is disturbing,” he said.
It may seem normal to hear about someone living to 100 – former US President Jimmy Carter hit this milestone last week. In 2019, just over 2% of Americans reached 100, compared to 5% in Japan and 9% in Hong Kong, Olshansky said.
The number of centenarians is likely to grow in the coming decades, experts say, but that’s because of population growth. The percentage of people who hit 100 will remain limited, with less than 15% of women and 5% of men making it that long in most countries, Olshansky said.
© 2024 The Canadian Press
