Telsey Advisory Group CEO Dana Telsey offers his take on the retail industry and consumer behavior on ‘Barron’s Roundtable.’
The National Retail Federation (NRF) predicted that holiday spending will rise this year to a new record, including $979.5 billion and $989 billion, as shoppers turn to e-commerce.
This represents growth of up to 3.5%, which would be the slowest pace in six years. Last year, holiday sales grew 3.9% to $955.6 billion.
IE-commerce is said to be the main growth driver for retail sales during the holiday season of 2024, according to NRF, which is the largest group in the country.
Specifically, online and other non-store sales are expected to account for between $295.1 billion and $297.9 billion of total spending, up from $273.3 billion last year, according to NRF estimates.
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Notable differences between this year and last include the shopping period between Thanksgiving and Christmas being nearly a week shorter, totaling 26 days, and the economic impact of hurricanes Helene and Milton.
A shopper carries bags at the Polaris Fashion Place mall during Black Friday in Columbus, Ohio, on Nov. 24, 2023. (Matthew Hatcher/Bloomberg via / Getty Images)
Despite consumers still feeling pressure, especially due to the sluggish US job market, NRF chief economist Jack Kleinhenz is optimistic about “the pace of economic activity and growth expected in the second half of the year.”
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“Domestic finances are in good shape and encourage strong spending during the holiday season, although households will spend more cautiously,” Kleinhenz said.
Staff at the Amazon Swansea fulfillment center process orders. (Matt Cardy/Getty Images)
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Adobe predicted earlier this season that Internet usage will be driven largely by increased discounts and the popularity of buy now, pay latest services.
In fact, the buy now, pay for utilities laterwhich allows consumers to pay in installments, will drive a record $18.5 billion in online spending, up 11.4% year over year.
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