Beyond the Numbers
Dimitrov’s devastating forehand is at the top of the charts
Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analyzes Dimitrov in advance
October 30, 2024
ATP Tour
Grigor Dimitrov is hitting the front more than anyone on the ATP Tour.
Written by Craig O’Shannessy
Grigor Dimitrov’s forehand is a cannon.
ATP Infosys Beyond The Numbers analysis of TDI data on groundstroke speed, spin, and clearance of the current Top 10 in ATP events over the past three years indicates that no one explodes his forehand more than the 33-year-old Bulgarian age.
Dimitrov’s highest PIF ATP ranking was No. 3 back in 2017. He started 2022 at No. 28 and has climbed back to No. 9, and tearing up the ranks has really helped pave the way back to the top tier of our sport.
The data set is further subdivided into the following four categories.
• Indoor hard
• Outside hard
• Clay
• Grass
Top 10 average front speed is 75 mph. Dimitrov is the only player in the data set to reach the 80 mph mark on any surface. Below are three players who reached the top two speeds.
Average speed of the forehand
1. 80 mph = Dimitrov (outside hard)
2. 80 mph = Dimitrov (clay)
3. 79 mph = Dimitrov (strong house)
4. 79 mph = Fritz (solid house)
5. 79 mph = Rublev (strong house)
Dimitrov won the Brisbane International Presented by Evie to start 2024, defeating World No. 8 Holger Rune, 7-6(5), 6-4 in the final. Dimitrov’s previous average speed was 81 mph against Rune and increased to 82 mph in his second-round win over Daniel Altmaier.
Interestingly, Hubert Hurkacz took three of the four previous slowest speeds, with 69 mph on grass being the slowest in the data set. It is important to note that faster does not always mean better. Different speed, rotation, depth, and approach help make every forward a dangerous weapon.
Jannik Sinner and Alexander Zverev lead the pack in backhand speed, taking the five fastest backhands in the Top 10. The Top 10 average is 68 mph. Soni and Zverev hit well and passed that high point.
Average Backhand speed
1. 75 mph = Sinner (clay)
2. 73 mph = Sinner (except hard)
3. 73 mph = Sinner (solid house)
4. 73 mph = Zverev (clay)
5. 72 mph = Zverev (indoor hard)
Sinner and Zverev have met once on clay in the past three seasons, with Zverev winning 5-7, 6-3, 7-6 (5) in the quarterfinals of the 2022 Rolex Monte Carlo Masters. Sinner’s average backhand speed was 76 mph, while Zverev’s was 75 mph. There was no delay from either wing back.
Hurkacz on grass, at 59 mph, registered the slowest average backhand speed in the Top 10.
When it comes to hitting the hardest ball with the most spin, only two players have taken the top six spots for forehand swing: Casper Ruud and Carlos Alcaraz.
Average Forehand Spin
1. 3291 rpm = Ruud (clay)
2. 3207 rpm = Ruud (outside hard)
3. 3177 rpm = Alcaraz (outside hard)
4. 3141 rpm = Ruud (outside hard)
5. 3056 rpm = Alcaraz (clay)
6. 3055 rpm = Alcaraz (solid house)
The two players last met in the quarterfinals of the 2023 Beijing ATP 500, where Alcaraz won 6-4, 6-2. The Spaniard hit his front, averaging a jaw-dropping 3316 rpm, while Ruud also broke the 3000 rpm limit at 3175 rpm. Both players enjoy hitting a large amount of forehand spin so that the ball kicks high and heavy above their opponent’s strike zone.
Top 10 forehand spin average was 2708 rpm. Once again, Hurkacz on grass, at 2085 pm, was at the bottom of the table with the least number of front throws.
Dimitrov only has one backhand in the Top 10, and it’s surprising to see him climb the rankings when it comes to hitting the hardest backhand. In fact, the top seven spots are all occupied by Dimitrov and Ruud.
Average Backhand Spin
1. 2681 rpm = Dimitrov (clay)
2. 2651 rpm = Ruud (clay)
3. 2606 rpm = Ruud (outside hard
4. 2580 rpm = Dimitrov (hard house)
5. 2576 rpm = Dimitrov (outside hard)
6. 2572 rpm = Ruud (inside hard)
7. 2399 rpm = Dimitrov (grass)
The two players have met just once in the past three years, with Dimitrov winning 6-3, 7-5 in the 2022 Monte Carlo round of 16. Ruud averaged a maximum backhand rpm of 2877 rpm, while Dimitrov averaged 2647 rpm. The length and depth along with this amount of spin makes it almost impossible for opponents to get onto the ball effectively to attack.
Speed and spin also produce a rise above the net metric, and it is not surprising to see the two best places taken by Ruud on clay (0.89 meters) and Alcaraz on clay at (0.87 meters). In the backhand wing, Ruud took the top three spots, with those on clay (1.12 meters), outside durability (1.04 meters), and interior durability (0.92 meters).
Top 10 is incredibly skilled at combining speed, swing, and height to produce a groundstroke that feels ready to kill and makes their opponents very uncomfortable on the other side of the net.
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