Germany’s top diplomat is pouring cold water on Canada’s request to increase natural gas exports to Europe.
At a press conference at the German embassy in Ottawa on Friday, Jennifer Morgan, secretary of state and special envoy for international climate action, warned that Germany and Europe will need less natural gas from countries like Canada in the future.
“All the studies show that the market will shrink,” said Morgan. “Germany will be leading the way in renewables, and demand for gas will decrease.”
Morgan, a US-born former head of Greenpeace International, is Germany’s first special envoy for international climate policy. He represents Europe’s largest economy and largest exporter and works regularly with his Canadian counterpart, Environment and Climate Change Minister Steven Guilbeault.
Morgan said that, like Canada, Germany has a law that obligates it to reduce emissions — but aims to achieve net-zero by 2045, half a decade before Canada expects to hit that target. He suggested that the role played by natural gas in the German economy would diminish.
“It’s part of the transition, but not for long,” Morgan told reporters.
He cited research and projections showing that Germany is expected to reduce gas imports by 30 percent by 2030 and 96 percent by 2050. .
Morgan said this is a guess, not a target.
The decline in Europe’s appetite for natural gas is largely due to Russia’s war with Ukraine. Russia was once an important supplier of natural gas to Europe; it is accused of suppressing that share in retaliation for crippling sanctions imposed by Germany and other Western allies.
More than 40 percent of Europe’s natural gas appeared in Russia before launching its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. That share of the European natural gas market has now dropped to less than 15 percent. Norway became the EU’s largest gas supplier in 2023, followed by the United States and North Africa.
When asked if Germany needs Canadian natural gas to replenish its stocks, Morgan said his country is increasingly reliant on renewables.
“We need to continue LNG sales in the future, but right now, our gas storage facilities are full,” Morgan said.
Morgan noted Germany’s growing reliance on energy efficiency and renewables in its power grid, which now account for 60 percent of electricity output.
The envoy’s comments will come as no surprise to energy market experts, who have disputed that Canada’s liquefied natural gas will not meet the short-term energy needs of the European Union.
Morgan said Germany needs Canada’s precious minerals and hydrogen. The two countries recently committed to a $600 million hydrogen export deal in Atlantic Canada.
When that announcement was made in July, Germany’s deputy mission chief, Karina Häuslmeier, said Berlin was “equally committed” to developing Canada’s growing clean hydrogen industry.
Karina Häuslmeier, deputy head of mission at the German Embassy in Ottawa, explains Germany’s commitment to a multi-billion dollar commitment to export hydrogen to Atlantic Canada.
Melissa Lantsman, deputy leader of Canada’s Conservative Party, said that despite the German envoy’s message, her party remains committed to expanding Canada’s LNG industry and driving out energy produced by “foreign competitors and dictators.”
Conservatives also attacked the assurances of the German environment minister.
“While the CBC is talking to climate activists who are affiliated with Greenpeace from other countries to open a case of killing Canadian paycheques, the truth is that Europe came knocking and asking for our world-class LNG again. [Prime Minister] “Justin Trudeau slammed the door in their faces and said there is no blame for that,” said Lantsman in a press release.
Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre is clearly committed to exporting more Canadian natural gas to Germany and other European countries.
“The Japanese, the Greeks, the Germans have all asked for our natural gas to end their dependence [Russian President Vladimir] Phuthini. Trudeau says there is no business case,” Poilievre said at a July news conference.
“Obviously, there’s a business case. I’ll be exporting Canadian natural resources, mostly to break Europe’s dependence on Putin and turn dictator dollars into paychecks for our people.”
According to Natural Resources Canada, Canada was the world’s fifth largest producer of natural gas and the sixth largest exporter in 2022. Most of that goes to the US, but that should change once several projects — LNG Canada Phase 1, Woodfibre LNG and Cedar LNG — come online in BC by the end of this decade. Those projects are expected to open Asian markets to Canadian electricity.
The Canadian group Energy for a Secure Future supports Canadian natural gas exports. The group’s chairman, Shannon Joseph, said Canadian politicians and business leaders should take Germany’s comments seriously but continue to increase production and exports of Canadian natural gas.
“There’s a lot of demand growth in Asia, which is always going to be an area with a lot of demand for growth. So I think Canada needs to take a big picture approach and get our resource where it’s needed,” Joseph said.
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