Consumer prices could triple in poor countries by 2050, even under ambitious climate policies.
Even under ambitious climate policies, low-income countries will see consumer food prices rise 2.45 times by 2050 while producer prices will rise 3.3 times, the study has found.
Although the increase in purchase prices is not visible to farmers in low-income countries, it will still make it difficult for people in these countries to get enough and healthy food, said researchers from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), in Germany. .
“In high-income countries like the US or Germany, farmers receive less than a quarter of the cost of food, compared to more than 70 percent in Sub-Saharan Africa, where the cost of farming makes up a large part of the price of food,” said David Meng. -Chuen Chen, PIK scientist and lead author of the study published in Nature Food.
“This gap emphasizes how food systems work in different ways in all regions,” he said.
The researchers hypothesized that as economies improve and food systems improve, farmers will increasingly receive a smaller share of consumer spending, a measure known as the ‘farm share’ of the food dollar.
For the analysis, researchers examined food price components across 136 countries and 11 food groups, using statistical models and procedures. They learn the prices of food to eat at home and at home.
“Most of the models are based on the cost of the farm, but we have even reached the grocery store and even the food store or canteen,” said Chen.
Analyzing entire food value chains also helped researchers provide insights into how policies aimed at reducing greenhouse gases affect consumers.
“Climate policies aimed at reducing agricultural emissions often raise concerns about rising food prices, especially for consumers. Our analysis shows that the long supply chains of today’s food systems prevent consumer prices from rising significantly, especially in rich countries,” said Chen.
However, these climate policies affect poor consumers differently, the researchers say.
Consumer food prices in rich countries will be 1.25 times higher with climate policies, even if producer prices are 2.73 times higher by 2050, the researchers found.
In contrast, low-income countries would see food prices rise by a factor of 2.45 under ambitious climate policies by 2050 while producer prices would rise by a factor of 3.3, they found.
“Even under ambitious climate policies with strong greenhouse gas emissions from agricultural activities the impact on consumer prices in 2050 will be very small in rich countries,” said author and PIK scientist Benjamin Bodirsky.
Profits from a carbon price — where governments charge one for the emission of gas produced — could be used to subsidize low-income households, the researchers said, citing a 2021 PIK study that showed households could be better off this way despite rising food prices.
“Climate policies may be a challenge for consumers, farmers and food producers in the short term but they are important for protecting agricultural and food systems in the long term,” said author Hermann Lotze-Campen, who is also head of the research department. – ‘Climate Resilience’ — at PIK.
“Climate policies should be designed to include measures that help producers and consumers to transition smoothly, such as fair carbon pricing, financial support for vulnerable regions and population groups, and investments in sustainable farming practices,” said Lotze-Campen.
