Breeze Airways is introducing tips on its first international routes, including premium seats

Could Frontier Airlines and Spirit Airlines finally merge, after all?

“That’s my prediction,” the CEO of a competitive low-cost airline told TPG.

Talks have swirled about the possibility of the two leading budget carriers coming together.

Spirit and Frontier explored a merger in 2022, but Spirit pulled out of talks to pursue a marriage with JetBlue — a deal that was eventually blocked in court by the Biden administration.

Then, late last year, the Wall Street Journal reported that the airlines had taken control of the acquisition talks. However, the deal reportedly fell apart days before Spirit announced it had filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection.

Spirit’s financial turmoil — owed to mounting debt, shrinking revenue and a host of other factors — comes amid turmoil for budget airlines.

Strong climate for budget airlines

In recent years, the low-cost end of the US airline industry has lost ground to the “dead” major carriers, which boast the long-haul international routes that most travelers currently crave. Not to mention, the major carriers are offering things like premium cabins, lie-flat seats and those lucrative flyer programs and credit cards that have played a major role in profitability since the coronavirus pandemic.

Others in the industry – United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby, most frankly – have predicted the demise of some budget airlines, notably Frontier and Spirit. These carriers have long been known for offering the lowest fares but they add on the fees of many other flight services.

In a wide-ranging interview with TPG last month, low-cost airline executive David Neeleman, CEO of Breeze Airways, offered his own take.

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“I think Spirit and Frontier will survive,” Neeleman said. “But, I think it would be a lot easier if they could meet. If they became one.”

Asked if he could predict a future merger between the two carriers, Neeleman didn’t mince words: “Yes,” he said.

Both airlines have repeatedly declined to comment on any ongoing merger or acquisition talks. It may also be noted that the incoming Trump administration is widely expected to take a more aggressive regulatory stance than the administration before it, perhaps prompting another consolidation effort.

Low-cost airlines offer eye premium

In any case, Neeleman said he generally agrees with United’s Kirby’s blunt assessment of the state of the U.S. airline industry — that is, of the Chicago-based carrier’s advantage over budget carriers (Breeze is one of them).

Repeatedly in 2024, Kirby asserted United’s “structural, permanent and irreversible” advantage in the industry — along with that of Delta Air Lines.

Now that the major carriers have largely eliminated switching fees and added their own low-cost, low-cost basic fares, Kirby and others have asked why travelers would choose a budget carrier when the same fares are available on a full-service carrier. .

Some budget airline executives dismissed predictions of the industry’s demise.

“That’s ridiculous,” Frontier CEO Barry Biffle said sarcastically, addressing the claim in an interview with TPG last month.

But Neeleman offered a slightly different take.

“Scott [Kirby] he found a way to get people on United the same thing they get on Spirit, knowing that no one would choose to fly Spirit if they came to fly United,” Neeleman said.

“When you get into United Airlines [Boeing 737] MAX 9 [jet] today, it’s perfectly tailored to what people want,” Neeleman continued, noting United’s offerings range from first class to premium groomers to premium options.

It’s an extensive menu of features that travelers can also find on Delta and American Airlines. Such variations are also in the works at a rapidly growing list of budget carriers: Frontier announced new premium-style seats in December, Southwest has new extra-legroom lines planned for 2026 and JetBlue plans to add a domestic first class. the closet. (Neleman is perhaps best known in the US for founding JetBlue back in 2000).

Breeze sees an opportunity

Today, Neeleman thinks changing travelers’ tastes — that is, the desire for more spacious lines, better seats and more choices — will bode well for his latest startup, Breeze. The airline was launched in 2021 during the outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic.

Since its launch, the Utah-based airline has offered free bags, Wi-Fi service and first-class accommodations to passengers who choose its “Best” fares. This fare is one of the discounted fares of the old budget airline (“Good”) for those money buyers.

“When I argue with those people,” Neeleman said of Spirit and Frontier, “we’re doing pretty well. Because people want to fly Breeze.”

Of course, his airline could get more competition in the coming years, as travelers continue to find extra-space options on low-cost airlines. This is a key reason Breeze is “really considering” increasing the number of “Elegant” seats on Airbus A220s, Neeleman said.

“We started with 24 [first-class seats on board] and we went to 12, and I think we are really considering going back to 16 because there is a lot of demand,” he said, noting that the airline can reschedule its flights “overnight” to make such changes.

International flights on the horizon

But what about international service?

When I last spoke with Neeleman, about eight months ago, he teased an upcoming international expansion tied to major long-term growth plans at Providence’s Rhode Island TF Green International Airport (PVD).

In fact, the airline that started working with Breeze, Avelo – which also launched in 2021 – was hitting hard with new service to Mexico, Jamaica and the Dominican Republic from Hartford’s Bradley International Airport (BDL) and North Carolina’s Raleigh-Durham International Airport (RDU). BDL and RDU are the airports where the two most recent arrivals are the focus of attention.

Neeleman cited delays in Federal Aviation Administration approvals that would allow Breeze to fly its aircraft internationally. That plan should be completed by the end of March, he told TPG.

“And then we can do Hawaii, kind of the North Atlantic – especially the British Isles, and Ireland. Places like that,” he said.

You went up first though?

“Mexico, the Dominican Republic, Jamaica, those kinds of things,” he said.

Breeze currently offers 280 nonstop flights — and has no competition on 86% of them, the carrier noted this month.

Its growth is expected to continue in 2025. According to data from the aviation analysis company Cirium, its number of seats in the first half of this year will increase by about 49% over the same period last year.

Whether that focus is on international or domestic flights, or economy or premium cabins remains to be seen amid a historic shift in traveler preferences. Stay tuned.

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