As Syrians celebrate the fall of a dictator, there may be no clear successor
Among the many celebrations across Syria on Sunday, the incident at the Umayyad Mosque in Damascus may be remembered as one of the most important.
Abu Mohammed al-Golani, the leader of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), who led his opposition forces out of Idlib province and in just 11 days suffered the blows that killed President Bashar al-Assad in office, stood before cheering audience.
“This will be a new victory for the entire Muslim nation, this will be a historic victory for this region,” said al-Golani as those in the crowd pumped their fists.
But exactly what al-Golani, 42, a former al-Qaeda follower whose group remains on the terrorist list of many Western countries, has in mind for Syria – and whether he can control the tense situation – is in the middle. many unknowns now facing the Syrians.
Assad and his father before him ruled the country for more than 50 years, killing or imprisoning anyone who opposed the family’s rule.
Aid groups say Assad’s forces killed more than 300,000 opponents and arrested countless thousands after the 2011 Arab Spring protests.
Even in cities like Latakia, which remained loyal to Assad, there were celebrations, suggesting there is widespread relief that he is finally gone. But what kind of government or leader should be removed from his position was always a matter of contention.
Who takes over?
Al-Golani’s remarkable success in leading Assad’s Syrian Arab Army now puts him at the forefront of talk as a possible successor.
“I think it’s a new era,” said Fawaz Gerges, a Middle East analyst at the London School of Economics.
“Syria can go one of two ways. It can either tragically and tragically descend into total social, political and ethnic violence or it can basically begin a process of social healing.”
Whether al-Golani positions himself as that healer remains to be seen, but he has proven that he has the ability to connect with the community that will need it.
Hours after HTS captured Syria’s second-largest city, Aleppo, he reportedly issued instructions that Assad’s supporters should not be punished, and minorities should not feel threatened.
In an interview with CNN, he wore a blue military uniform with no obvious religious symbols, and said his goal was to rid the country of Assad.
HTS’s social media posts even referred to him by his given name, Ahmad Al-Shar’a, and not by his nom de guerre.
Since 2017, al-Golani and HTS have controlled the Idlib province in Syria next to Turkey, controlling border checkpoints, running a municipal-style government and forming informal ties with countries such as Turkey.
Extreme roots
In one of his rare interviews, al-Golani said he publicly cut ties with al-Qaeda in 2016 and is now focusing on administration, rather than plotting to attack the West.
But some observers doubt whether he can translate his experience of managing a small pocket of Syria into the more difficult task of managing a complex country with all its competing religions, ethnicities and political systems.
Addressing crowds in Damascus, HTS leader Abu Mohammed al-Jawlani outlined his vision for a new Syria after the dramatic fall of the Assad regime, as ousted president Bashar al-Assad was reportedly granted asylum in Russia.
“As the scope of the area continues to expand across the country, I think it will be very difficult for HTS and al-Golani to really control it,” said Sam Heller, a Beirut-based researcher at think-tank Century International who studied. dangerous groups in the area.
“I wouldn’t have thought you’d be in control now.”
Heller said the pace of the fall of the Assad regime was so rapid and rapid that it is possible that al-Golani himself was taken by surprise and ended up leading his forces into Damascus.
At first, the offensive he launched from Idlib towards Aleppo appeared to be more of a strategy to advance HTS frontline areas than the national liberation movement.
“It is difficult to know what the principals of Golani are,” said Heller.
Some question whether his stated conversion away from jihadi ideology to moderate politics is truly sincere.
“When the Taliban took over Afghanistan in the 1990s, they promised the same thing,” said Sajjan M. Gohel, director of international security at the Asia-Pacific Foundation in London.
“They promised peace, security, modernity, and then ruled in a strange way. HTS will have to prove itself.”
Turkey’s victory
One foreign leader who appears to be in a strong position to influence what happens next in Syria is Turkey’s Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
Turkey’s president has played a long game with Syria for years, banking and providing military aid to opposition groups, as well as allowing more than three million Syrians fleeing the civil war to seek refuge in Turkey.
As al-Golani’s forces swept south, many Turkish-backed opposition groups went with them.
“The Turks will try to consolidate or expand their influence in Syria,” said Heller, an analyst at Century International.
“Their main interest in Syria has been the defeat of the SDF linked to the PKK,” he said, referring to the Syrian Democratic Forces.
The PKK, or Kurdistan Workers’ Party, is a Kurdish separatist group that is considered a terrorist organization by Turkey and other Western governments, including Canada. Attacks on Turkish soldiers and civilians are suspected.
The United States supports the Syrian Democratic Forces, which Turkey says is affiliated with the PKK. In one of the Biden administration’s first statements about Assad’s demise, the spokesman indicated that support would continue, without mentioning Turkey.
Notably, as HTS and other opposition forces approached the Syrian cities of Homs and Damascus, some Turkish-backed rebels moved in the opposite direction to attack the Kurdish north and east, including the northern city of Manbij.
Although HTS’s links with Turkey are tenuous, there have been numerous reports that Turkish military advisers have helped with drone training, logistics and other support – suggesting that whichever party ultimately rules Damascus, may be sympathetic to Turkey’s wishes.
There are few competitors
As for other potential candidates to succeed Assad, several analysts who spoke to CBC News were willing to speculate.
“I think the answer is probably no. That’s what worries me,” said Heller.
Some say the messages sent by al-Golani’s group over the next few days will be important.
“So far, we have seen about 400,000 people displaced from their homes in Aleppo, Hama and Homs,” said Gerges from the London School of Economics. “To assure the Syrian people that the rebels will not take revenge on the Syrian people, this would be a big change in Syria.”
Gohel of the Asia-Pacific Foundation said the decisions Syrians will make in the coming days and months are unprecedented in their country.
“In terms of what happens next, we’re entering uncharted territory.”
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