The attack on Jabalia points to Israel’s controversial plan in northern Gaza

On Saturday morning, a message was posted on social media by a spokesman for the Israeli military in Arabic warning people living in the ‘D5’ area in northern Gaza to move south. D5 is a grid square superimposed on maps of Gaza by the Israel Defense Forces (IDF). It is a block divided into several areas.

The message, the latest in a series, said: “The IDF is working with great strength against terrorist organizations and will continue to do so for a long time. The selected area, including the existing shelters, is considered a dangerous combat zone. to help people.”

The map is attached with a large yellow arrow pointing from block D5 down south of Gaza. Salah al-Din Road is the main north-south road. This message does not promise a quick return to the areas where people lived, an area that has been devastated by a year of repeated Israeli attacks. The heart of the message is that the IDF will use “great force … for a long time”. In other words, don’t expect to come back anytime soon.

The humanitarian site designated by Israel in the message is al-Mawasi, formerly an agricultural area on the coast near Rafah. It is more crowded and less safe than many other parts of Gaza. BBC Verify has tracked at least 18 airstrikes in the area.

Hamas sent its own messages to the 400,000 people left in northern Gaza, the once urban center of the Strip with a population of 1.4m. Hamas tells them not to move. It is said that the south is equally dangerous. In addition, Hamas warns them that they will not be allowed to return.

Many people were seen staying, despite Israeli airstrikes and shelling. When I landed in the northern part of Gaza I heard an explosion and saw a lot of smoke rising. The intensity reminded me of the first months of the war.

Some people who have settled in the north of Gaza when many others have fled to the south do so to stay with relatives who are in danger. Some come from families linked to Hamas. Under the laws of war, that does not automatically make them belligerents.

Another tactic used last year by civilians who want to avoid IDF operations without taking chances in the overcrowded and dangerous area south of Gaza is to move to another area in the north, for example from Beit Hanoun to Gaza City, while the IDF. works near their homes or shelters. When the army moves on, they return.

The IDF is trying to stop that, according to BBC colleagues who are in daily contact with Palestinians in Gaza. It directs families traveling only one way, down Salah al-Din, the main road to the south.

Israel does not allow journalists to enter Gaza to report on the war, except for short, irregular trips closely monitored by the IDF. The Palestinian journalists who were there on October 7 are still working bravely. The Committee to Protect Journalists says at least 128 Palestinian media workers in Gaza have been killed since the war began. In northern Gaza, since the Israelis pulled back on the offensive, they have been filming distraught families as they flee, often with small children helping to carry large backpacks.

One of them posted a short interview with a woman called Manar al-Bayar who was running on the street with a small child. He said as he walked slowly, half running on the way out of the Jabalia refugee camp that “they told us we have five minutes to leave the school in Fallujah. Where are we going? In the south of Gaza there are killings. In the west of Gaza they are hitting people with shells.

The journey is difficult. Sometimes, Palestinians in Gaza say, people who leave are chased away by the IDF. It insists that the Israeli military observe strict rules of engagement that respect international humanitarian law.

But the head of defense in Palestine, Medical Aid for Palestinians, Liz Allcock, says that the evidence presented by the injured people shows that they were targeted.

“When we receive patients in hospitals, a large number of those women and children and people, if you like, non-combatants receive direct gunshots to the head, spine, limbs, which is very indicative of a targeted attack.”

Again, the UN and aid agencies working in Gaza say Israel’s military pressure is deepening what is already a humanitarian crisis.

Desperate messages are being sent to the remaining hospitals in northern Gaza, saying they are running out of fuel to power the generators that keep the hospitals running, and to keep seriously injured patients alive. Some hospitals report that their buildings have been attacked by the Israelis.

Suspicion among Palestinians, the UN and aid organizations is that the IDF is gradually adopting some or all of the new strategy to clear northern Gaza known as the “General Plan”. A group of retired senior officers has been suggested by Major-General (retd) Giora Eiland, former national security adviser.

Like many Israelis they are frustrated and angry that a year into the war Israel has not achieved its war goals of destroying Hamas and freeing the hostages. The Generals’ plan is a new idea whose promoters believe that, from Israel’s point of view, it can break the deadlock.

At its heart is the idea that Israel can force the surrender of Hamas and its leader Yahya Sinwar by increasing pressure on all northerners. The first step is to order residents to take exit routes that will take them to the south of Wadi Gaza, an east-west stream that has become the dividing line in Gaza since the Israeli offensive last October.

Giora Eiland believes that Israel should have quickly made a deal for the hostages to return, even if it meant withdrawing from Gaza completely. A year later, alternatives, he says, are needed.

In his office in central Israel, he laid out the core of the plan.

“Since we have already surrounded the northern part of Gaza for the past nine or ten months, the next thing we should do is tell all 300,000 citizens. [that the UN estimates is 400,000] who still live in the northern part of Gaza that they must leave this area and must be given 10 days to travel through safe corridors that will be provided by Israel.

“And after that time, this whole area will be a military zone. And all the people of Hamas will continue, even if some of them are soldiers, some of them are civilians … they will have two choices to surrender or starve. .”

Eiland wants Israel to close the areas once the exits are closed. Anyone who remained would be treated as an enemy soldier. This place will be besieged, the army will stop all food, water or other necessities of life from entering. He believes that the pressure will not be tolerated and what is left of Hamas will quickly collapse, free the surviving hostages and surrender to Israel. win what you want.

The UN World Food Program says the ongoing offensive in Gaza is “having a negative impact on food security for thousands of Palestinian families”. The main roads into northern Gaza, he says, have been closed and no food aid has entered the line since 1 October. Mobile kitchens and bakeries have been forced to cease operations due to air strikes. One working bakery in the north, supported by WFP, caught fire after it was hit by an explosive device. The situation in the south is almost as bad.

It is not clear whether the IDF has accepted the General’s Plan in part or in full, but some evidence from what is being done in Gaza suggests that it is at least having a strong influence on the tactics used on the people. The BBC sent a list of questions to the IDF, which went unanswered.

International extremists in Benjamin Netanyahu’s cabinet want to expel Palestinians from northern Gaza and replace them with Jewish settlers. Among the many statements he has made on the matter, Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich said “Our soldiers are heroes and soldiers are destroying the evil of Hamas, and we will take the Gaza Strip… there is no security.”