Recent deadly ship strikes in the Black Sea could threaten commercial traffic, analysts warn

After three cargo ships were hit by Russian missiles in Ukrainian ports this week, killing at least 10 and injuring several others, maritime analysts warned that shipping operators may begin to refuse passage through the Black Sea because of the increased threat.

“If the attacks continue, it will eventually force some of the companies to review the policy of calling in Ukraine,” said Tomas Alexa, a leading European analyst. Ambreya maritime risk assessment and management company.

“It seems that there has been a change in the modus operandi [for Russia] … there is a green light to attack ships directly in port.”

As a result of the strikes, carried out over five days this week, war risk insurance premiums – the amount that shippers must pay when crossing high-risk areas – have increased by almost 30% in this section of the Black Sea. in percent, said Alexa.

Russian officials, along with other government-affiliated media, said the ships were targeted because they were carrying ammunition and military equipment.

Ukraine, and at least one of the shippers, denies the claims, saying all the ships were exporting commercial goods.

It can damage the ability to export

Ukraine is concerned that this could undermine its ability to export its agricultural products, including grain and corn, along the temporary export corridor.

After Russia left Black Sea Grain Initiativeagreement brokered by the United Nations and Turkey that created a humanitarian shipping corridor, Ukraine established its own temporary channel.

Instead of crossing the sea directly, the ships now touch the coasts of two NATO countries, Bulgaria and Romania, as they head for Ukrainian ports.

Three different ports were hit during this week’s attack.

Russia’s Defense Ministry said it targeted a cargo ship in Pivdennyi, Ukraine, on October 6, because it said the Saint Kitts and Nevis-flagged ship was carrying goods from Europe.

The service was released video with black and white characters which appears to have been taken from a surveillance plane and said the video shows a large explosion, the result of an explosion of ammunition.

Ukraine denies these claims and says the ship was carrying cargo 6,000 tons of corn.

The ship, Paresa, is owned by AK Shipping, which is based in Greece.

Syrians, Indian tribesmen and Ukrainians

The Tradewindsa publication focused on global shipping, spoke to the owner of the company, who denied Russia’s claims and provided documents showing that it had a contract to carry Ukrainian grain in October on behalf of Swiss clients.

Russia is doing “disgusting things like attacking civilian infrastructure and they are not afraid to directly attack ships flying foreign flags,” said Oleksandr Kharlov, first deputy head of military administration in the Odesa region, in an interview with CBC News.

“Unfortunately, our citizens, port infrastructure workers … who have nothing to do with military affairs or the defense of our country, are dying.”

All the victims killed in this attack were citizens of Ukraine, but among the wounded there were natives of Syria and India, who were working on the ship Optima, which was damaged in the October 7 attack in the port of Odesa.

The third attack hit the port of Chornomorsk on October 9.

In that strike, a Panamanian container ship, the Shui Spirit, was damaged, and at least 10 Ukrainians were killed.

The city of Odesa observed a day of mourning on Friday not only to honor the victims of the port strikes, but the four who died in the building hit by the Russian strike on Thursday night.

There is no media access to the port

Media access was denied to the ports of Odesa after the attack, but Ukrainian officials released images they said showed the aftermath and proved that Russia had targeted civilian infrastructure.

One of the images shows destroyed shipping containers, with what appear to be boxes of Christmas decorations scattered on the floor.

Alexa says that while her analytics firm cannot completely rule out that the ships were involved in the delivery of weapons, there is no evidence from Russia that they were.

“Our argument is that Russia has decided that it must really limit the number of ships calling on Ukraine,” he said.

Ukraine, one of the world’s largest producers of wheat and corn and the largest exporter of sunflower oil, has been able to plant. strengthen its exports using the temporary Black Sea route, which is an important source of income for Kyiv.

But Alexa says this latest attack will make other commuters extra cautious.

The same risk for ports controlled by Russia

Since the Russian offensive began in full on Feb. 24, 2022, there were cases where the ships changed crews before entering the Black Sea, as some on board did not want to take the trip.

Alexa says that companies that have already left the site but are considering returning to it may choose to postpone their plans for now.

In a danger notificationAmbrey concluded that this latest attack means there is a serious threat to ships operating in Russian-controlled areas and ports, due to the possibility that Ukraine may retaliate.

The forum says Russia can continue to target commercial vessels under the pretext of providing weapons.

It suggests the only way to deal with such requests would be to allow Russian forces to inspect the ships, as they do under the UN-backed Humanitarian Grain Corridor, a move Ukraine is unlikely to agree to.