Hadley’s vision
Don’t expect Gulf governments to stop Israel’s brutal campaign to eliminate Iran’s proxies.
As Israel independently upends the balance of power in the Middle East, the Gulf states will watch and wait on the sidelines, ready to re-engage if a new order emerges.
This is because Israel’s campaign to eliminate the enemies of the state – Hamas and Hezbollah – is in line with the interests of the Gulf governments. They, too, are committed to eliminating Iran’s proxies in the region. Despite the horrific loss of life in Gaza and the rising death toll in Lebanon, the Abraham Accords remain intact, and Saudi Arabia continues to work to mend relations with Israel, gathering security guarantees from the US along the way.
Gulf governments spent years sending money to various Lebanese political parties, governments, and aid groups with nothing to show for it. The country’s inability to effectively govern itself has been exploited internally and externally for years, creating a waste of time, talent, and money that Gulf governments see little point in continuing: One Gulf official recently compared the previous policy of mutual aid. places like Lebanon to burn money on fire, just to enjoy the flames.
Back in 2019, Saad Hariri, the former prime minister of Lebanon with deep Saudi ties, told me that his countrymen were their worst enemies. Then, he became the leader of a country on the brink of economic collapse, the caretaker of a country whose banking system had been rigged. Creditors financed post-war reconstruction, but politicians did not implement the economic reforms needed to maintain stability. After a long period of high interest rates, banks collapsed, wiping out savings.
With the currency losing more than 90% of its value, Lebanon was repeatedly attacked by a series of problems – economic, humanitarian, and security, among them the explosion of the port of Beirut. A few years ago, the only people who were doing well were those with new dollars, and that’s what Iran’s representative in Lebanon can provide. Despite the crippled situation, Hezbollah and its followers have enjoyed a long period of strength, stability, and growth. For years I have listened as members of all sects – Muslims, Christians, and Druze – denounced Nasrallah, openly calling on Israel to get him out.
But now that the deed is done, the cost of killing a Hezbollah commander may be too much for most to bear. In an interview last week at his compound in Beirut, longtime Druze leader Walid Joumblatt told me that those who continue to clamor for immediate Israeli intervention should be careful what they wish for.
When I spoke with him, the 75-year-old, whose political life skills are famous, told me that he believes that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is determined to change the entire system in the Middle East, which could lead to chaos.
History has shown that there is nothing wrong with Gulf involvement. The rulers of the region may be happy to return and rebuild what Israel destroyed in Lebanon and Gaza, as long as this “new order” emerges. Until that happens, the Gulf rests on the course of throwing good money after bad, and will be content to hate this method without engaging in madness.
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