WAfter the Iranian embassy in Syria was destroyed in April, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei vowed to punish Israel. What followed was a major attack, however by telegraph and without an all-out battle.
Three months later, the military chief of Iran-backed Hezbollah and the political head of Hamas were killed within hours of each other. The wider regional conflict seen by some as imminent has not yet erupted.
Israel’s assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah on Friday in Beirut had an even greater impact. But direct war with the Islamic Republic is still possible, according to current and former US government officials and Middle East and regional experts. Instead, Iran will focus on rebuilding the militant group in Lebanon and keeping its network of proxies active as long as possible, they said.
Read more: How Hezbollah’s Nasrallah’s Death Brings a Renewed Chance for Central Peace
For all the saber rattling, what Iran calls its powerful “axis of resistance” has in fact once again exposed its soft underbelly. Both Hezbollah, the most important asset in that axis, and Iran itself have been weakened and have few options, making it unlikely that they will escalate the conflict, according to a person familiar with US thinking.
Another concern is whether Israel continues its plans to harm Hezbollah while the US is focused on the presidential election campaign, said one Arab official. Already, the killing of Nasrallah followed an attack on the party’s nervous system by exploding the pagers and walkie talkies they used to communicate.
“Iran will be locked in a response, with a large group of people who want revenge,” said Dina Esfandiary, senior adviser for the Middle East and North Africa at the International Crisis Group. “But these managers don’t want to get themselves into a mess they can’t overcome. So they will have to measure their response.”
There were early signs from officials that the Islamic Republic would exercise the kind of restraint it has shown after some of Israel’s recent attacks. That doesn’t matter because Israel is superior militarily and the US has moved more troops into the region to prevent a major attack by its ally.
Mohammad Javad Zarif, a top aide to Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian and a former foreign minister, told state television on Sunday: “We will respond at an appropriate time of our own choosing.”
Read more: Hezbollah and Israel Stare Into the Abyss
Khamenei’s first statement the previous day, emphasized the fact that Hezbollah has enough people to replace Nasrallah and that “the axis of resistance will decide the fate of the region.”
The rhetoric from Tehran shows the desire of the clerics and the military to keep the war at a high level. In the near future, the task will be to restore the power of the militant groups it supports in the region and ensure that they do not descend into full-scale war.
In Lebanon, the priority is to preserve what is left of Hezbollah, according to Vali Nasr, a former senior adviser at the US State Department and a professor of Middle East studies at Johns Hopkins University. The group, like Hamas, is considered a terrorist organization by the US and many of its allies.
“The priority for Iran is deterrence – it doesn’t want a big war right now and it suspects that Israel does,” Nasr said. “It’s not revenge against Nasrallah, it’s about rebuilding their position.”
There is no hiding Iran’s vulnerability of late. Amid a series of major attacks against Iran’s allies and workers, former President Ebrahim Raisi died in a helicopter crash, leading to elections that brought in reform leader Pezeshkian in July. However, weakness comes forward.
The death of the Hezbollah chief coincides with the US extradition of Qassem Soleimani, a well-known Iranian general and national hero, in early 2020. That was during the administration of Donald Trump, Iran hawk turned Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin. Netanyahu’s key coalition partners have approved a return to the White House.
Read more: Iran, Trump, and the Third Assassination Plot
“It is very sad after Soleimani was killed and in many ways his successor was Nasrallah,” said Nasr. “He was a luminary and a linchpin and he cannot be easily replaced and Hezbollah will not be rebuilt quickly.”
Allies Syria and Iraq will be the main channels for the transfer of Hezbollah’s resources, according to a source with direct knowledge of the movement of soldiers in northeastern Syria and Iranian forces operating in both countries.
Iran will now try to move thousands of fighters to areas along the border between Lebanon and Syria, the source said, adding that in the past two months several thousand soldiers have left Iraq for Syria, suggesting that Tehran was preparing to tighten its blockade.
Since its involvement in Syria in 2012 to protect the regime of Bashar al-Assad and other Iranian-backed militias, Hezbollah has built bases and a network of tunnels in areas of Syria near the Lebanese border. Many Hezbollah commanders have also been fleeing to Syria from Lebanon with their families, according to a person familiar with the situation.
“Iran is not fighting its proxies, its proxies are fighting it,” said Jonathan Lord, former Pentagon chief and director of the Middle East security program at the Center for a New American Security. “The state has a vested interest in self-defense and will not knowingly put itself at risk.”
A major Israeli strike south of Beirut to take over Nasrallah also killed the commander of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. That raised the number of killings of senior IRGC officials and operatives and senior members of proxy groups to at least a dozen since last year’s October 7 attack by Hamas.
Although the loss of Nasrallah and the reduction of Hezbollah’s top ranks is a great loss for both the organization and Iran, it is unlikely to change or rethink Iran’s foreign and regional policy. Pezeshkian received Khamenei’s tacit support to pursue a policy of cautious engagement with the West in order to obtain relief from economic sanctions.
That requires ensuring that relations with the US and Europe do not deteriorate further as Israel continues to pressure Iran militarily.
Read more: Special: Netanyahu at War
As Miri Eisen, a retired Israeli intelligence colonel and former prime minister’s spokeswoman, put it: Beirut and the assassination of Nasrallah are not a “checkmate.”
“This does not eliminate Hezbollah,” he said. “Hezbollah’s weapons are 10 times more than what Hamas once had. Hezbollah is supported and the path to an Islamic state in Iran is open. “
Indeed, the bombing of the leadership and members of Hezbollah has also exposed the limits of the Islamic Republic when it comes to retaliating against Israel.
A missile attack by Tehran in April, thwarted by Israel with the help of its allies, has been the extent of Iran’s response to Israel so far, despite its generals often warning of “crushing” or “brutal” retaliation. It has raised questions about whether Iran really has the ability to follow through on these threats.
“It’s very clear that Iran is also surprised by all this and needs time to regroup,” said Barbara Slavin, distinguished fellow at the Stimson Center, a foreign policy think tank in the US. he’s still in a growth spurt. They’ll go back to guerilla tactics and strategy patience.”
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