By Revin Mikhael D. Ochave, A reporter
The Philippine Stock Exchange index (PSEi) may trade at 7,000-8,000 this year, with the start of the second term of US President Donald J. Trump, the direction of global monetary policy, and mid-term elections in the Philippines to determine the market. movement.
The PSEi closed 2024 at 6,528.79, up 1.2% or 78.75 points from the end of 2023 at 6,450.04. This was the first time since 2019 that the index posted a year-over-year increase.
The local stock barometer may reach as low as 7,600 this year amid market vigilance as Mr. Trump starting his second term as US President, Managing Director of China Bank Capital Corp. Juan Paolo E. Colet in a Viber message.
“[This] year presents a complex picture. While we remain optimistic about the growth prospects of the Philippine economy and the earnings potential of many listed companies, we approach 2025 with caution as there are many uncertainties regarding Trump 2.0. As in his first term, we expect that Trump’s social media posts will again move the markets, so investors should be ready to manage that volatility,” said Mr. Colet.
The upcoming Philippine mid-term elections and geopolitical issues could bring more uncertainty, he added.
“We are wary of the impact of potential natural disasters and geopolitical pressures on our country’s economy. Investors will also be keeping a close eye on the mid-term elections as their outcome can either ensure stability or create uncertainty.”
President of BDO Capital & Investment Corp. Eduardo V. Francisco said in an interview that the market could trade between 7,000 to 7,500 this year.
“Even if the US announces a rate cut, it’s not really good. And if the peso depreciates, foreign investors will be hurt because the big money wants the peso to be strong and stable,” he said.
Head of Research for AP Securities, Inc. Alfred Benjamin R. Garcia had an “optimistic view” of Philippine stocks this year, citing market strength despite the headwinds.
“We think the fundamentals are there to lift the market higher, but we acknowledge that we face many headwinds such as lower prices and the possibility of another global trade war,” he said in a Viber message.
“Despite concerns about international and local factors – such as macroeconomics, geopolitical conditions, and the new president of the United States – the numbers and ratings of the PSEi show a positive outlook,” Luna Securities, Inc. Chief Research Officer and Market Strategist Annika Gabrielle S. Angeles said in a market report.
Ms. Angeles said that under their initial scenario, the PSEi could trade between 7,030 and 8,080 this year.
COL Financial Group, Inc. Chief Equity Strategist April Lynn C. Lee-Tan said market drivers for 2025 include inflation and interest rates, as well as mid-term elections.
He added that the “attractive valuations” of the market and the Business Recovery Benefits and the recently signed Tax Incentives for Businesses to Maximize the Opportunities of the Economic Revitalization Act could provide a boost to investment.
However, Ms. Tan said that the volatility of the American markets is a big risk as this could also spread to the Philippines.
“The Philippines is suffering from contagion when it comes to the sluggish US market,” he said.
“Any improvement in domestic and foreign market conditions, especially if the PSEi rises to 7,000-8,000 levels, can help encourage additional fundraising activities in the local stock market such as initial public offerings, follow-on offerings, preferred stock offerings, stock rights offerings. , private placements, among others,” said Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. Chief Financial Officer Michael L. Ricafort in a Viber message.
Source link
