Foodgrain production is expected to peak by 2025 as the agricultural sector is set to grow by 4%.
India is poised to achieve a new peak in foodgrain production by 2025, driven by favorable monsoons, although major challenges remain in oilseed production as the country’s agriculture sector shows signs of a strong recovery.
The Agriculture Department’s initial projections paint a positive picture, with kharif (summer) grain production estimated at a record 164.7 million tonnes in the 2024-25 crop year ending June 2025.
Winter crop planting has maintained steady progress, with wheat planted on 29.31 million hectares as of mid-December 2024, while rabi (winter) crops total 55.88 million hectares.
“We had a good kharif crop due to normal rainfall,” Agriculture Secretary Devesh Chaturvedi told PTI.
“Overall, the outlook for the year-round crop looks promising,” he added, although he warned of possible heat waves in February-March that could affect the winter wheat crop.
The agriculture sector is expected to bounce back strongly, as it is expected to grow by 3.5-4 per cent in 2024-25, up from 1.4 per cent in the previous financial year.
Agricultural economist S Mahendra Dev says the development is due to “good rains and rising rural demand”.
This growth comes despite localized floods and drought affecting crops in parts of Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh and Rajasthan. Climate change caused by climate change has particularly affected onion and tomato yields in certain areas.
However, the road ahead is not without obstacles. To address the persistent challenge of satisfying pulses and oilseeds, the government will launch the National Mission on Edible Oils – Oilseeds (NMEO-Oilseeds) by 2025, backed by a massive budget of Rs 10,103 crore.
This program aims to reduce dependence on foreign countries through targeted interventions and increased support rates. The agricultural sector has shown remarkable progress, with record production of fruits and vegetables.
The success is due to improved farming and the adoption of technology under various government schemes.
The sector is witnessing an increasing adoption of technology, with drones and AI-driven tools gaining momentum. “These new systems offer tremendous potential to improve productivity,” said Ashish Dobhal, CEO of UPL Sustainable AgriSolutions.
The government’s flagship PM-KISAN program continues to provide significant support, having disbursed over Rs 3.46 lakh crore to over 11 crore farmers since its launch in 2018.
Seven new agriculture schemes announced in September 2024, with a combined cost of Rs 13,966 crore, are scheduled to be fully implemented by 2025.
These programs cover various aspects of agriculture, including digital transformation, plant science, livestock health, and natural resource management.
However, farmers’ unrest remains a concern, especially in Punjab and Haryana, where demands for formal guarantees of MSP and other reforms continue.
The parliamentary committee suggested doubling the PM-KISAN support to Rs 12,000 per beneficiary and implementing crop insurance for small farmers.
Although farmer producer organizations (FPOs) increased by 9,204 registrations, they continue to face challenges, including limited market access and weak management capacity, which may affect their long-term sustainability.
Looking ahead, the ministry of agriculture plans to conduct a comparative study comparing its PMFBY crop insurance program with similar programs around the world, aiming to implement best practices within the PMFBY ecosystem.
Although government programs have shown varying degrees of success, experts note that many need to be reviewed and targeted interventions to address specific challenges in the farm sector effectively.
“Few central systems have had an impact, and others need to be re-examined,” noted Dev.
The coming year will be crucial for India’s agriculture sector as it balances traditional farming practices with technological innovation while addressing the ongoing challenges of food security and farmer welfare.
The success of the new systems and their implementation will likely determine the sector’s path to sustainable growth and independence in key crop sectors.
Key concerns remain about the effectiveness of MSP and high input costs, especially for fertilizers and pesticides.
The sector’s ability to address these challenges while maintaining productivity growth will be critical to achieving its ambitious 2025 goals.
