There is growing, but still anecdotal, evidence that a Syrian Il-76 Candid cargo plane currently based at the Russian Khmeimim Air Base in Syria is one that has gone missing in the last moments of the chaos of Bashar Al Assad’s regime. Rumors and claims abounded that the plane was carrying Assad and was shot down after disappearing from online flight trackers. The Syrian dictator fled the capital Damascus to Khmeimim, then to Moscow, according to his first statement in more than a week issued earlier today.
A Syrian Airlines Il-76 is seen at Khmeimim Air Base on December 15, 2024. Izzettin Kasim/Anadolu via Getty Images
The statement purportedly from Assad was sent via the Telegram social media channel linked to the defunct Syrian regime today, but it is unclear whether he actually wrote it and/or posted it online. The Syrian dictator has not been seen in public for more than a week, although Russian officials say they have given him asylum. You can read more about the current situation in Syria, which remains very fluid, in our previous reporting here.
Assad moved into Khmeimim using unspecified means and with the help of Russia on December 8, according to the statement. It also says that the Syrian dictator initially intended to continue to direct the war against rebels in Russian territory. So far there is no independent verification of this assertion. War Zone he has noted in the past that the Russian air base will be the safest place in the country for Assad in the crisis.
“Without effective means of leaving the base, Moscow has requested that the base command plan to move to Russia on the evening of Sunday, December 8,” the statement added. “This happened a day after the fall of Damascus, following the collapse of the last military positions and the resulting paralysis of all remaining state institutions.”
The basic timeline outlined in the statement is consistent with online flight tracking data that showed Syrian Airlines Il-76 with Syrian registration YK-ATA flying north from the Damascus area early on December 8. Tracking data for that flight came out shortly after it overran the city. of Homs, where rebel forces had taken over on December 7. That, combined with data showing a shift to the left and a sharp decline of speed and altitude, all up to 1,625 feet and 130 knots, had sparked rumors that the plane had been shot down.
Last night we tracked an Ilyushin Il-76T flight over Syria.
The plane took off from Damascus and the signal was lost near the city of Homs.
* We can guarantee that the flight will happen.
* The plane was old with an old generation transponder, so some data may be wrong or… pic.twitter.com/uCGUnVeug0– Flightradar24 (@flightradar24) December 8, 2024
Publicly available data from NASA’s Fire Information for Resource Management System (FIRMS), which is mainly intended to help monitor wildfires and other fires caused by natural disasters, showed a ‘hot spot’ exactly where the plane brought down the radar. War Zone has been working on getting a high resolution image of the area, but we haven’t gotten a clear image yet. No photos have emerged so far showing any remains of the Il-76 in Syria.
Last night we tracked an Ilyushin Il-76T flight over Syria.
The plane took off from Damascus and the signal was lost near the city of Homs.
* We can guarantee that the flight will happen.
* The plane was old with an old generation transponder, so some data may be wrong or… pic.twitter.com/uCGUnVeug0– Flightradar24 (@flightradar24) December 8, 2024
FIRMMS (NASA’s space-based fire/thermal anomaly tracking system) detected a collision early today where the IL-76 disappeared from radar between the border of Lebanon and Homs. pic.twitter.com/XQDGR2yLEw
— Tyler Rogoway (@Aviation_Intel) December 8, 2024
“The area where the plane was flying, especially the area of Syria between Homs and the coast, is constantly subject to GPS interference – including hopping and hopping,” a Dec. 12 post from the official website of flight-tracking website Flightradar24 says. . “With that in mind, analysis of the raw ADS-B data received from YK-ATA shows position and velocity data that strains belief.”
It is also worth noting here that YK-ATA’s trip north was unusual, firstly, based on flight tracking data from the ADS-B Exchange that War Zone updated. In the months leading up to the fall of Assad, the plane was very active, but it was seen on routes flying to and from parts of Africa. Flightradar24’s December 12 website also says “in recent months the plane has visited Benghazi, Libya regularly.” There are now reports that Russia may be looking to make up for any loss of its presence in Syria by expanding its presence in Libya, although there are no indications that YK-ATA’s recent flight history is consistent.
An example of YK-ATA’s regular flight track in the months leading up to the fall of the Assad regime. This flight took place on December 3. ADS-B Exchange
In addition, it is now confirmed that the Syrian Airlines Il-76 is parked in one corner of the open apron at the northeast end of Khmeimim. Satellite image War Zone update from Planet Labs shows Candid in its current position on December 9. The Il-76 was seen parked between the runways the day before and was missing on December 7.
The Syrian Airlines Yak-40, a passenger plane that is between a large business jet and a small plane of similar size, reappeared at the base on December 8. The Yak-40 was initially parked on a separate apron, but was subsequently moved. on the Il-76 on December 13.
The video posted on social media below, taken by a drone and based in Turkey Syria TV released last week, clearly shows the Syrian Airlines Il-76 in Khmeimim at many points during its operational life.
A satellite image of Khmeimim taken on December 13 shows a Syrian Airlines Il-76 and Yak-40, left, and a Russian An-124 cargo plane, right. Satellite Image ©2024 Maxar Technologies
A Syrian Airlines Il-76 is seen on the left in this Dec. 10 satellite image of Khmeimim. A Russian Il-76 is also seen on the right apron. Satellite Image ©2024 Maxar Technologies
In addition, a Russian Il-76 was tracked leaving Khmeimim for Moscow on December 8, which also coincides with the timeline in the new statement attributed to Assad.
Overall, there are indications that the Syrian Airlines Il-76 in Khmeimim is YK-ATA and that Assad used that aircraft or a Yak-40 as part of his last flight from the country on December 8. The Il-76 could have been used to assist other spiritual goods, including the wealth of the kingdom, go to Khmeimim and go out of the country. It would be Assad’s priority to get physical assets, including gold and reserves, to safety. It is reported that the Assad family has been stealing large amounts of wealth overseas for years. There are reports that some former government officials have been fleeing the Russian base to leave the country with the help of the Kremlin.
However, it remains unknown for sure whether it is YK-ATA or not in Russian territory. Syrian Airlines has four Il-76s in its inventory and no photos have surfaced so far that clearly show the registration on the Khmeimim example. It is still possible that YK-ATA will relocate or go down.
There are still many questions about what might happen to the Khmeimim Air Base, including the Syrian Airlines flights there, and the Russian military base in Tartus. The air and naval bases are the Kremlin’s main strategic centers supporting operations beyond Syria. A large-scale withdrawal of Russian troops from the country is underway, but it is not yet clear whether it is going well or not. Russian officials have maintained that they are still trying to hold on to their two prestigious bases, but there are unconfirmed reports that they may be ordered to leave the country within a month. You can read more about what is now known about these negotiations in the report here.
The end of the Assad regime has already given way to unprecedented views on Khmeimim. Perhaps now a clearer picture showing the registration code of Syrian Airlines Il-76 will appear to resolve the question of whether this jet is ‘lost’ forever.
Contact the author: joe@twz.com
