EThe most dramatic developments in the Middle East this year have left Iran vulnerable. In 2024, the Islamic Republic lost in Gaza, Lebanon, and, most surprisingly, in the Syrian Arab Republic, the Linchpin of the “Shiite Crescent” fell so quickly this month that Tehran had to oppose the release of its officers of the Revolutionary Guards. ‘Qods Force. In an instant, the collapse of the Assad regime halved the number of states that Iran considers allies, leaving only Venezuela, a nation that is liberating itself from its own people. The Axis of Resistance is fighting wars in Iraq and the Houthi nation of Yemen, the poorest country in the Middle East.
Inside Iran, however, things could be worse. The economy is at its lowest point since the 1979 Revolution that brought a democratic government to power. The ministry of social affairs last year announced that 57 percent of Iranians are facing some level of malnutrition. Thirty percent live below the poverty line. The Iranian rial has fallen 46 percent in the past year, and is officially the world’s most valuable currency, worth less than the Sierra Leonean Leone or the Laotian Kip. As ordinary Iranians watch their savings evaporate from the pages of bank statements, the unstable regime has decided this is a good time to threaten them.
“If anyone inside Iran speaks in a way that translates into terrorizing people, this is a crime and they must be prosecuted,” Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei said on Wednesday. It was his first speech since the fall of the Assads, who when they fled to Moscow left a debt to Tehran of 30 billion dollars and thousands of lives. However, what worried the ayatollah—understandably—was the stability of his regime.
The devaluation of the Iranian rial means that heavily subsidized fuel prices, which now range from the equivalent of 7.5 to 15 US cents per litre, are no longer viable. Plans are being made to increase the price in the new year. The last time it happened, in 2019, the country went into protests across the country known as Bloody November. The government shut down the internet while its forces opened fire, making it difficult to say the death toll, but Amnesty International put the minimum number at 304.
If you look at the literature, the state may feel that it has no choice. After decades of US sanctions halted the development of its petroleum sector, Iran—home to the world’s second-largest natural gas reserves—is facing gas shortages that are forcing it to cut electricity production. A country that used to export electricity to neighboring countries a few years ago has been forced to use blackouts for its own people.
The state also aims to check the society in other ways. The parliament, which contains a majority of extremists, has approved a bill on the hijab, headscarf and headscarf imposed by the Islamic Republic on all women. Coming into effect a few weeks ago, the new law is the government’s response to the “Women, Life, Freedom” protests that resulted from the death of Mahsa Amini, 22, in police custody in September, 2022 following her arrest for nothing. adequate hijab.
Read more: The Hidden Role Ordinary Iranians Have Played in the Protests
The protests took place in more than 200 major cities and towns, lasted for months and presented the biggest internal threat to the government since the 1980s. Iran’s security forces responded to the protests with brutality, killing more than 500 people, according to human rights groups. About a thousand others suffered life-long injuries such as blindness; tens of thousands were arrested. If the new hijab bill is implemented, the Islamic Republic could face a repeat of the riots that almost destroyed it.
The state apparatus already seems vulnerable. The Islamic Republic has long touted its ability to provide “security” in the world’s most volatile region. But on the day of its current president’s inauguration in July, a state guest, Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh, was killed by an explosive device (probably Israeli) hidden in a government guest house in one of the most dangerous areas. strong compounds in Tehran. The new president, Masoud Pezeshkian, was appointed after his predecessor, Ebrahim Raisi, died in a mysterious helicopter crash in May. The government has not yet offered an explanation for why its chopper crashed into a regular flight or why it took nearly a day to find the crash site.
Meanwhile, Israel has attacked Iran several times this year using conventional military methods, targeting key missile production facilities and anti-aircraft defenses—obviously in a tit-for-tat exchange of unprecedented direct attacks on each nation’s soil. Iran’s missile attacks, in contrast, did not cause significant damage or casualties. Israel’s latest attack, in October, went unanswered, prompting some staunch defenders of the government to question it publicly for the first time, and talk of a loss of faith as well.
Khamenei, who has been in power since 1989, is 85 years old, and there are rumors that he is seriously ill. A leaked audio file from the head of his medical team giving him only until this winter to live and beyond, “relying on the grace of God and the prayers of the people” was strongly rejected as false. But Khamenei’s appearance has become worse in recent years. Once a strong speaker, his voice is now loud, and his sentences are short. His speech on Wednesday was not broadcast live on state television as usual.
Whatever his health, Khamenei’s age alone made the succession a serious concern. It will be the second time the Islamic Republic passes in a row. The last one was in 1989, when Iran’s economy was at its best and its citizens were at odds. Moreover, there was no disillusionment among the elites of the empire that we see today. For example, it was the loud grumbling about the loss of Syria among the Iranian people that prompted the Supreme Leader’s warning about speech that “scares the people.” But large sections of Iranian society are apparently no longer afraid to speak out.
A few hours after the Leader’s speech, singer Parastoo Ahmadi live-streamed the concert on his YouTube account, located inside Iran. It was the first time since the Islamic Revolution, banning women from singing to men. Despite this ban, Ahmadi performed in an evening dress, her hair flowing over her bare shoulders, for more than two million views so far. He was arrested on Saturday, then released pending trial.
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