Syrians have big plans for life after Assad. But their neighbors may have other ideas
The people of Syria who want to make their own politics, without foreign interference, following the overthrow of President Bashar al-Assad may be defeated by the wishes of their neighbors, who have been able to enter the country, experts say.
“We all want this to be a time of freedom and self-determination,” for Syrians, said Mostafa Minawi, a history professor at Cornell University.
But, and all the foreign players who are already involved in Syria, “I don’t know how that will happen.” he said.
“They don’t plan to go anywhere.”
Those players include Turkey, which has a continuing interest in Syria because of its Kurdish minority; Iran, in turn, along with Russia, had supported the Assad regime; and Israel, which has annexed Syria’s Golan Heights and expressed concern about Islamic insurgents.
A rebel group has quickly ousted Bashar al-Assad’s regime from Syria, leaving a vacuum in an already tense region. The National’s Adrienne Arsenault asks CBC’s Chris Brown and The Economist’s Gregg Carlstrom to reveal who’s in charge now and the implications of what happens next.
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Observers expect that Turkey will play a major role in the future of Syria, as it has established a military base in the northern part of the country, controlling areas such as the city of Afrin and parts of the countryside outside Aleppo.
These areas act as buffers for Kurdish groups and provide leverage in Syria’s political landscape, analysts say.
“Although Turkey may represent a reconstructed or rebuilt Syria, it is unlikely to fully withdraw its influence, as its strategic goals remain closely linked to the future of Syria,” Sajjan M. Gohel, director of international security at the Asia-Pacific Foundation in London, said in an email to CBC News.
Turkey’s main concern is the Kurdish forces in Syria, which it views as an extension of the Turkey-based independent Kurdistan Workers’ Party (KWP), which seeks Kurdish autonomy. The Turkish government has called the KWP a terrorist group and does not believe Kurdish forces in Syria should exist.
The US cooperated with those Kurdish forces to defeat the Islamic State group. But this alliance has been a source of tension between Washington and Ankara, even though both are NATO allies.
Turkey is “very low,” Minawi said. “They are not going anywhere because there are Kurdish groups along the northern border of Syria who will not allow them to develop their independent region because this threatens the independence of Turkey.”
Ankara has very strong channels of communication, and a history of working, with Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the Islamist rebel coalition that now controls much of Syria, has put it in place to reap the benefits of the demise of the Assad regime, Gonul Tol, the director. of the Middle East Institute’s Turkish Program, wrote on foreign affairs.
“Turkey will certainly have a role to play. Its support to the ruling parties, the long border it shares with Syria, and its military presence in the country give it significant influence,” he wrote.
Iran and Russia
The defeat of Assad, who was backed by the Iranian government, is a significant blow to Tehran, which is already at a strategic loss after Israel crushed its allies Hamas and Hezbollah. Gaza and Lebanon respectively.
“Syria represents the basis of the Iranian empire to project its influence as far as the Mediterranean, and that has disappeared,” said Jonathan Piron, a historian and expert on Iran at the Etopia research center in Brussels, told France 24.
“Iran finds itself in a position of unprecedented weakness.”
However, its long-term support for Assad and its deployment of Shia militias in Syria has deepened divisions in the country, meaning Iran can also be expected to remain, Gohel said.
“Even if Iranian support is reduced without Assad in Syria, the military may still have influence, potentially undermining efforts at national unity,” he said.
Minawi admits that he would not have thought that Iran would not be fully involved.
“They even said that they are ready to talk to the interim government, but they are determined to back down.”
However, Foad Izadi, a professor at the University of Tehran, told the Wall Street Journal that Iran has historically found a place in fractured regions, and may be able to maintain some influence in Syria, regardless of the country’s political future.
“The democratic Syrian government will not be friendly to Israel, it will support the Palestinian cause,” backed by Hamas and Iran-backed Hezbollah, he said.
And if you’re going to have chaos, and Syria turns into another Libya, that’s also something Iran can’t control. “
Meanwhile, despite not being a regional neighbor, Russia has played a key role in supporting the Assad regime, providing military and diplomatic support.
After decades of rule, the Assad regime has fallen to Syrian rebel groups led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham. Andrew Chang breaks down the two weeks of intense fighting that led to this earthquake of rebel forces. Photos provided by Getty Images, The Canadian Press and Reuters Connect. Additional credits: 0:05: BBC News/YouTube, 0:09: PBS NewsHour/YouTube, 0:13: Reuters social media, 0:14: Reuters social media, 1:52: FRANCE 24 English/YouTube, 1:56 : FRANCE 24 English/YouTube, 1:57: ABC News (Australia)/YouTube
Russia may want to maintain leverage through agreements on military bases, thus ensuring a long-term trajectory in Syria, Gohel said.
“The West will want that to end and may be willing to legitimize any regime that replaces Assad, even recognizing the terrorist group HTS … if that means reducing the presence of Iran and Russia,” he said.
Israel
Since the fall of the Assad regime, Israel has launched heavy airstrikes across Syria. At that time its troops moved into a nearly 400-square kilometer buffer zone within its neighbor, established by the UN after the 1973 Mideast war.
The airstrikes, the Israeli military said, took out Syrian missiles, drones, warplanes, helicopters, tanks, radar systems and small military vessels belonging to the country.
“They basically cripple any military capability and infrastructure,” Minawi said. “It is a way to degrade the state before the state goes down.”
Going to the buffer zone was prohibited by the UN agreement, and brought condemnation from other countries. But Israeli political and military leaders say the move is temporary and not a prelude to further incursions into Syrian territory.
Israel says its immediate goal is to prevent the destabilization of Syria from escalating. The troops will remain “until security is guaranteed at our border,” Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said.
Israel is also using the political space to strengthen its defense positions. Israel has supported other rebel groups in southern Syria as part of a strategy to maintain a safe zone and prevent extremist forces from operating near the Golan Heights, Gohel said.
“This may continue. For Israel, one of the priorities will be to ensure that Syria is not used as a staging ground for Hezbollah.”
Avi Dichter, an Israeli minister and member of the security cabinet, says the goal is to “get the facts on the ground,” the Washington Post reported.
Although HTS and other Sunni opposition groups have been fighting Iran-backed militias for years, Dichter said Israel is “still preparing for the possibility of the rebels reaching an agreement with Iran, with Hezbollah.”
Israel needs to “first see how [the rebels] build their own country and their own army,” Dichter said, according to the Post.
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