Analysis: Can Hezbollah-Israel stop fighting? | Israel attacks Lebanon News

Beirut, Lebanon – A ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah continued to hold on Friday despite accusations from both sides that the other had violated it.

The 60-day agreement between the United States and France went into effect at 4 a.m. Wednesday after nearly 14 months of cross-border attacks and just over two months of Israeli violence that has wreaked havoc in southern Lebanon, the eastern Bekaa Valley and Beirut. The southern area, known as Dahiyeh.

Under the ceasefire, southern Lebanon will be ceded to Hezbollah, who will withdraw north of the Litani River and Israel, who will withdraw from Lebanon to the south of the Blue Line.

The Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) will work to patrol the south along with UN peacekeepers, UNIFIL.

Violation

Article 2 of the cease-fire agreement states that Israel will not carry out attacks on Lebanese territory and the Lebanese government will prevent Hezbollah or other armed groups from attacking Israel.

However, several incidents of Israeli attacks inside Lebanon have emerged.

“In fact, it appears that the Israelis have violated Article 2 by opening fire on Lebanon,” Nicholas Blanford, head of the Atlantic Council, told Al Jazeera.

Israel also tried to block the movement of people in southern Lebanon, issuing a map with the area marked in red, demanding that its people not go home, “which is not part of the ceasefire agreement”, said Blanford.

Al Jazeera previously reported that Israel may try to build a buffer zone in southern Lebanon using white phosphorus and other tactics.

On Thursday, Israeli soldiers opened fire on people in a car, calling them “suspects”, in southern Lebanon.

Israel says these “suspects” violated the ceasefire – Hezbollah said Israel attacked people trying to return home.

Israel said on Thursday it was imposing a curfew in the south and attacked what it said was a “Hezbollah center” with medium-range rockets in the Sidon region, north of Litani.

Israel also injured three people in Markaba and two journalists in Khiam – one by gunfire and one by gunfire – on Wednesday.

The Lebanese army said Thursday evening that it was investigating the Israeli violations and would compile a report.

A fragile agreement

Although the reported violations by Israel have been criticized by Hezbollah figures, the group has not responded to any military response.

Indeed, on Friday, the group reiterated its commitment to the ceasefire agreement.

In his first televised speech since the agreement came into effect, Secretary-General Naim Qassem said he would work with the Lebanese army to enforce the ceasefire, adding that he saw no “problems or disagreements” with the army.

“Communication between the opposition and the Lebanese army will be at a high level,” Qassem said.

Almost 14 months of war, as Hezbollah and Israeli forces have exchanged fire almost every day since the war in Gaza began in October 2023, has taken a heavy toll on people from the border towns.

On the Lebanese side, at least 3,961 people have been killed by Israeli fire. About 140 soldiers and civilians have been killed by Hezbollah fire in Israel.

Israel’s offensive, which escalated when it invaded Lebanon in September, has caused extensive damage to homes and infrastructure across the country, with the World Bank estimating $2.8bn in residential damage alone.

An estimated 99,000 homes were partially or completely destroyed.

As thousands of people began to return to their homes on Wednesday, many Lebanese fear that the attacks are not yet over.

In the Beirut neighborhood of Khandaq al-Ghamik, an Israeli attack destroyed several floors of a residential building on the last day before the end of the fire.

On Wednesday, Sleiman Omairat stood outside the neighboring building where he lives and has an office. His office was destroyed by debris from the explosion, and his car was parked in front.

“There is still no sense of security,” he said. “The Zionists don’t let you have it.”

However, for now, Omairat said that the ceasefire “brought back dignity to the country” because of the “boys of the south”, referring to Hezbollah.

Can Hezbollah respond? ‘Now is not the time’

When the shooting stopped, Hezbollah seized the opportunity to succeed.

On Thursday, it said it had achieved “defeat against a treacherous enemy that cannot undermine its determination or break its will”.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and former Defense Minister Yoav Gallant have repeatedly spoken of wanting to destroy Hezbollah’s military power, implying that Israel will not stop until that is accomplished.

However, Hezbollah continued to attack Israel until the last hours before the ceasefire.

But it seems that both sides had to give up. Despite Hebollah’s survival and continued ability to fire rockets and missiles, analysts say the “victory” came with compromises.

Before his assassination, the late Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah set one condition for an end to the war: an end to Israel’s war in Gaza. That has not happened and, in the end, communication between the borders of Gaza and Lebanon is broken with this stop.

“The party stood strong … it gave the most important thing it had for Palestine and Gaza,” political analyst Kassem Kassir, who is understood to be close to Hezbollah, told Al Jazeera.

“It’s hard to deny that this war was bad for Hezbollah,” said Elia Ayoub, a UK-based writer, researcher and columnist for the political newspaper Hauntologies, explaining that Hezbollah has lost thousands.

But, Ayoub said, Israel’s behavior in Lebanon will have given more reasons to those who believe in armed conflict.

“The fact that the Israelis can no longer occupy southern Lebanon as they once did reinforces Hezbollah’s narrative that the only way to keep Lebanon from following the path of Gaza or the West Bank is through war,” Ayoub said.

For now, however, analysts say Hezbollah has other priorities as its community is shaken, caught up in rebuilding homes and livelihoods.

Now is not the time to take revenge for breaking the ceasefire, they say – it would be too dangerous for the Lebanese people.

“Hezbollah on the ground was in a critical situation and, in fact, the community as a whole was also left with 1.2 million people and that will not end,” Michael Young, a Lebanon expert at the Carnegie Middle East Center, told Al Jazeera.

Hezbollah will not reopen Israel for people returning to their homes in the south, he said, adding: “It would be madness.

“Hezbollah right now is going to be very focused … focused on looking after the welfare needs of the persecuted Shia community,” Blanford said. “That will be their priority even more than rebuilding their military capabilities.”

The post-war reality leaves big questions about Hezbollah’s future.

“They’re going to have to reorganize,” Blanford said. “Their senior leadership has been decapitated and, although they have plenty of other people to take over, they need to reorganize and clean up shop.

“It is clear that the Israelis infiltrated the organization and that allowed them to kill the top management whenever they wanted,” he said. “They have to find out what went wrong and how to fix it.”