EEuropean leaders see Donald Trump’s return to the White House as a way to promote the continent’s independence amid a potentially weakening partnership that has shaped the world for much of the past century. “We cannot rely on American voters every four years for our security,” said Benjamin Haddad, France’s Minister for European Affairs, told TIME. “Trump will defend America’s interests – that’s normal. It’s time to stand up and defend our own.”
That idea, expressed in recent years by French President Emmanuel Macron and others, has gained increasing resonance in the weeks since Trump won Vice President Kamala Harris, who had vowed to maintain the historic relationship accepted by President Joe Biden and all the other posts- the war President of the United States save Trump. In European capitals, observers say the shock many Europeans experienced after the 2016 election has given way to a quieter stoicism in 2024. While Trump’s trade signals are unpredictable, Europeans are pretty clear about what to expect in Trump’s second term—in part. because he has made his intentions clear. In a wide-ranging interview with TIME earlier this year, Trump promised to confront Europe on issues such as trade (“The European Union is brutal to us on trade”) and defense spending (“I want Europe to pay”). He also vowed to end nearly three years of war between Russia and Ukraine in less than a day—a goal some fear may include forcing Kyiv to cede territory Moscow claims is its own.
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“We are much better prepared, because we know what to expect,” said Nils Schmid, a German lawyer and foreign policy spokesman for the ruling Social Democrats. “Because we can prepare for an unexpected president, but still. European unity, of course, is key to dealing with this. “
Among Trump’s long-standing complaints is Washington’s lack of equal footing of the European defense bill, a tension that has grown as the US provided military support to Ukraine after the Russian invasion. Europe already exists. Several European foreign ministers urged countries to “play a much bigger role in ensuring our security,” including going beyond NATO’s current defense spending targets and strengthening Europe’s industrial base. The view was echoed by many of their defense partners, who this week pledged to step up their military support for Ukraine.
“The idea is that we can’t trust Ukraine and expect Trump to consider our sensitivity unless we’re willing to put a lot of money on the table,” said Mujtaba Rahman, managing director for Europe at Eurasia. Group Consultancy. By doing so, he says, Europe will not only be in a better position to influence Trump’s thinking on Ukraine, it will also give the president an early victory by allowing him to take responsibility for pressuring the EU to bear more of the financial burden in Ukraine—as he did with NATO defense spending during his tenure. the first.
Georgina Wright, deputy director of international studies at the Paris-based think tank Institut Montaigne, says such thinking reflects a “change in mindset” within the bloc in the trade thinking that defines Trump’s approach to foreign policy. He says: “I think there is a lot of awareness on the European side that you need to find something reliable.” “If the Europeans are going to ask the Americans for guarantees and security, to continue to be in Europe, but also to be kind to them in trade, they know that they will have to give something.”
That thinking goes beyond security. On trade, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has reportedly floated the idea of buying liquefied natural gas from the US as a way to avoid Trump’s punitive tariffs. If the tariffs come anyway, the thinking goes, the strategy could shift to retaliating against American-made goods, such as Kentucky bourbon, Harley-Davidson motorcycles, and Levi’s jeans.
Observers are confident that the EU can remain united on trade: “When you’re faced with something that will affect the whole EU, even if it affects some member states more than others, it’s really natural to come together,” Wright said. Support for Ukraine also seems strong. Despite the opposition of Hungary’s Viktor Orbán, the organization has provided 122 billion euros, or $131 billion, in military and financial aid.
But the two great powers of Europe are embroiled in domestic troubles. Germany’s government collapsed earlier this month amid disagreements over spending and how to fix the country’s budget deficit; preparing to hold new elections on Feb. 23, which means the next government will not be in place until months into the Trump administration. Meanwhile, France is grappling with a debt crisis that threatens to plunge its government, and the eurozone, into crisis.
A weak Berlin and Paris does not mean a weak EU, Wright notes. But Trump could choose – as he did in his first term – to bypass European institutions and deal directly with national leaders. That’s where the candidates to negotiate with the elected Europeans will be key: Among those considered important in the presidential transition is Mark Rutte, the Dutch prime minister-turned-NATO-official whose relationship with Trump during the presidential administration made him a watchdog “. The Trump Whisperer. Another Italian Prime Minister, Giorgio Meloni, whose intransigence has won him praise from the MAGA movement, including Trump’s chief executive, Elon Musk.
Most European leaders seem to see the incoming Trump administration as an opportunity for Europe to pursue greater independence. “Do we want to continue to exist, to do amazing things, or to be a theater of great power rivals? That is the question that Europeans must answer,” said Haddad, from France. “In 2016, there was a collective denial, that this was a historic accident, that things would return to ‘normal.’ Now it is time for us to wake up from our vacation in history.”
Others warn that a more confident Europe should not remove American security guarantees on which the continent remains heavily dependent. Schmid notes that Macron’s call for the EU to overhaul its security architecture—in large part by relying less on America’s nuclear deterrent and more on France’s nuclear stockpile—is inviting a continental version of the same danger that US voters have turned home twice.
“The French always push it too hard,” Schmid said. “I think there is a majority among European governments who prefer a strong US commitment to European security and a strong European defense. But exchanging the US nuclear umbrella over the uncertainty of the outcome of the upcoming French presidential election is less promising.”
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