Russian Ballistic Missile Attack on Ukraine Is a Shocking First

The Oreshnik missile launched on Tuesday appears to have been launched from Russia’s Kapustin Yar air base 800 kilometers from Dnipro, away from the height of the fighting.

This is the first time that an IRBM has been used in combat. The Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, ratified by the United States and the Soviet Union in 1988, banned ground-launched IRBMs. The US pulled out of the agreement in 2019 under the Trump administration for the first time, citing disagreement with Russia. At the time, US officials noted that China, which had not signed the treaty, had more than 1,000 IRBMs in its arsenal.

Putin said that Western air defenses could not destroy the Oreshnik missile in flight, although this claim could not be verified. He said Russia would give warnings to Ukraine before similar missile attacks in the future to allow civilians to flee dangerous areas.

Oreshnik missiles hit their targets at speeds of up to Mach 10, or 2.5 to 3 kilometers per second, Putin said. “The existing air defense systems around the world, including those being developed by the US in Europe, cannot stop such missiles.”

World War?

In perhaps the funniest part of his speech, Putin said the conflict in Ukraine is “taking over the entire world” and said Russia has the right to use missiles against Western countries that supply Ukraine with weapons to use against Russian targets.

“In the event of an escalation, we will respond quickly and in the same way,” Putin said. “I advise the leaders of those countries that plan to use their military against Russia to consider this.”

The change in nuclear doctrine approved by Putin earlier this week also lowers the limits on Russia’s use of nuclear weapons to counter conventional attacks that threaten Russia’s “territorial integrity.”

This seems to have happened. Ukraine launched an offensive on the Russian territory of Kursk in August, controlling more than 1,000 square kilometers of Russian land. Russian troops, aided by North Korean troops, are planning a war to try to retake the territory.

Singh called Russia’s invitation for North Korean troops “escalating” and said Putin “would choose to end this war today.”

US officials say Russian forces are suffering about 1,200 deaths or injuries a day in the war. In September, the Wall Street Journal reported that US intelligence sources estimated that a million Ukrainians and Russians had been killed or injured in the war.

The UN Human Rights Office recently reported that 11,973 civilians, including 622 children, have been killed since Russia’s full-scale offensive began in February 2022.

“We warned Russia in 2022 not to do this, and they did it anyway, so there are consequences for that,” Singh said. “But we don’t want to see this escalating into a regional wide conflict. We don’t want a war with Russia.”

This story appeared first Ars Technica.