Could the US win a war with China over Taiwan? American lawmakers have reported on the possible outcome

House lawmakers were briefed on Wednesday about the potential fallout if the US were to find itself at war with China over Taiwan in the next two years, as the world’s biggest power moves to intervene in US relations.

China’s defense industrial base is operating on “wartime,” and now has a shipbuilding capacity 230 times larger than that of the US, making a possible attack on Taiwan an unlikely outcome.

American military analysts have identified 2027 as the year when China will be fully armed for a military attack on Taiwan. And the US has long followed a policy of refusing to say whether it would come to the island’s defense under such a situation.

But under the military exercise conducted by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) 25 times and presented to the members of the House China Select Committee, the alliance of the US, Taiwan and Japan defeated the Chinese invasion and kept Taiwan independent. , but without major losses.

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During the simulation, the costs for all sides were high – there were more than 10,000 casualties – and the US lost 10-20 warships, two aircraft carriers, 200-400 fighter planes and more than 3,000 soldiers in three weeks of fighting.

China loses 90% of its naval fleet, 52 large warships, and 160 fighter jets.

“In our tabletop work today, we went through one possible worst-case scenario of a conflict with China and learned how we can work together to ensure that America is ready to be a champion of democracy again. No matter where or when, the United States and our allies must be and military means to defeat our enemies,” Rep. John Moolenaar, R-Mich., chairman of the committee, told Fox News Digital.

The report emphasized four important points: 1) Taiwan must “hold the line” from global aggression, 2) there is no “Ukraine” model in which the US can gradually expand – it must quickly decide whether to come to the defense of Taiwan, 3 ) military operations will require made by Japan and 4) the US needs to rapidly increase its supply of anti-ship missiles.

The bottom line in this report is that China prefers “D-Day,” but Taiwan and its defenders must be ready at any time. The war game took the launch date of 2026 for the invasion of China.

This scenario operates under the assumption that the US under President-elect Trump will protect Taiwan, although no such promise has been made. It is not clear what Trump would do under such a situation – think about Taiwan needing to pay the US for providing it with defense assistance.

Japan will be an ally of the US and Taiwan in such a war because South Korea has not authorized the US to launch a military operation on its territory. CSIS recommends deepening US-Japan diplomatic relations immediately.

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“It would be very helpful if South Korea could join us,” said Matthew Cancian, a researcher at the Naval War College and lead author of the project. The US is likely to remove two of the four teams it has stationed in South Korea to help fight China over Taiwan.

But, as the presenters warned, North Korea may try to take advantage of the situation and attack the south, especially after gaining experience in its war with Russia against Ukraine.

The official also said that unlike US aid to Ukraine, which goes through NATO territory to get there, the US will not be able to arm Taiwan without sending US forces – China’s anti-tank or anti-aircraft missiles. -air will threaten any shipment you make. the way to the island.

“The US military will have to be directly involved,” Cancian said. “There is no way to achieve denial of the takeover of Taiwan while keeping US troops safe.”

And if the US were to come to the defense of Taiwan, there would be no time to waste as China is much closer geographically than the US military. “If the US would not enter the war for two weeks [after an invasion]it would be too late. Chian already has a very strong foot,” said Cancian.

China’s land-based ballistic missiles and anti-ship missiles would pose a significant threat in theater. Defense cruise missiles and harpoons will be “very critical” to Taiwan’s defense, according to the wargame.

China produces the US in aircraft, ships and missiles, the work found, and in order to prevent them from reviving the war with Taiwan, the US needs to accelerate its production of important weapons, according to war games.

The current US stockpile of anti-ship missiles, about 440, would be exhausted in less than seven days in a war with China.

China will not be willing to give up easily, as losing Taiwan would “severely undermine” the government’s legitimacy at home.

The war games also underscored the need for Taiwan’s defense budget to move away from focusing on expensive, large ships that China can easily destroy and toward smaller, more survivable ships and submarines.

Freshmen attend military training in Nantong, Jiangsu province in China. (Xu Peiqin/VCG via Getty Images)

Chinese naval vessels are passing through the mine threat zone. (Sun Zifa/China News Service via Getty Images)

The US, in turn, should focus on arming Taiwan with smaller ships and cheaper weapons, with multiple iterations of war games that find the US losing two aircraft carriers and 10 to 20 large fighters.

“We need to get them to blow up their good stuff against our bad stuff,” said Rep. Carlos Gimenez, R-Fla. “They’re going to throw us out … we need to wake up.”

The US and Taiwan must not attack the Chinese mainland, both to avoid the risk of rising nuclear power and because China’s air defense on the mainland is “very strong.”

Ultimately, such an attack can happen quickly, or not at all.

The head of the US Indo-Pacific Command (INDOPACOM), Adm. Samuel Paparo, said recently that he believes the US will make it “very difficult” for China to attack.

For years, the US military has shifted its focus from the Middle East to the Indo-Pacific, “the most pressing theater,” as Paparo describes it, as China is the world’s most powerful adversary.

According to Chinese policy, the CCP will attack only if Taiwan declares its independence from China, if a third power intervenes in the conflict or if Beijing decides that “unity was beyond its reach in any other way.”

Although the US does not have a formal alliance with Taiwan, China has been making air and sea incursions into US allies in the Pacific – Japan and the Philippines.

Paparo said he saw “very well-rehearsed and well-coordinated exercises”. China in the summer that “I had seen in all the work of being a spectator.”

“This includes in one day 152 ships at sea,” said Paparo.

China’s navy is the largest in the world, with more than 370 ships and submarines. The US Navy includes 295 ships, including 11 active aircraft carriers.

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“This was the biggest test we have seen in the rise of the PLA [People’s Liberation Army] to modernize,” said Paparo, referring to the name of the Chinese military.