‘Whale’ betting on the election did more for Trump’s win than initially thought, analysis shows
Kalshi founder and CEO Tarek Mansour discusses the business of betting on elections in ‘Making Money.’
Millions of Americans are placing bets predicting the election in the weeks leading up to Election Day, and one of those market bets is going a lot further than previously thought.
A French person known by the name “Theo” initially bet more than 30 million dollars on Donald Trump’s White House win on the crypto-based trading platform Polymarket.
The anonymous bettor was initially thought to take home a $48 million profit from the wager, but blockchain data company Chainalysis provided an update on Thursday that the profit number is actually closer to $84 million.
“We have identified a 10th address associated with ‘Theo’ which increases the estimated net worth by $4.8M to $83.5M,” posted Chainalysis’ X account. “Address 11 is suspected of having another $2.1M in net worth , but not confirmed.”
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Polymarket gamblers allegedly spent $3.7 billion on betting on the election, and more money was spent on rival platforms such as Robinhood, Kalshi, Interactive Brokers and PredictIt.
An anonymous French election bettor known as “Theo” made more than $80 million on the former president’s 2024 win. (Getty Images)
Just hours before Election Day, Polymarket, the world’s largest prediction market, saw Trump with a 58.1% chance of taking back the White House, compared to Vice President Kamala Harris’ 41.9%.
Kalshi traders saw Trump with a 55% chance of victory, to Harris’ 45%, and RealClearPolitics’ betting data combined gave the former president a 57.9% chance of winning the election, compared to Harris’ 40.7%.
“Theo” spoke exclusively to the Wall Street Journal during a Zoom call last week where he said: “My goal is to make money… I have absolutely no political agenda.”
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Theo was initially believed to have four Polymarket accounts, but Chainalysis also said he may have as many as 11.
Polymarket is a new trading platform, created just four years ago, but it proved to be a way to keep American voters engaged during the 2024 election cycle.
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Breck Dumas of FOX Business contributed to this report.
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