The American people are faced with a decision about the future of their country and no matter which president they choose, Canada will not be able to escape the political pull from its closest neighbor.
Vice President Kamala Harris and former president Donald Trump are presenting very different approaches to the United States and the race for the White House appears to be very close.
The US is Canada’s largest trading partner and its next president will be in charge during the review of the Canada-US-Mexico agreement in 2026.
Harris campaigned that he voted against the trilateral agreement, saying it did not do enough to protect American workers or the environment. The vice president is expected to maintain President Joe Biden’s policies on American procurement.
The centerpiece of Trump’s agenda is a proposed 10 percent tax across the board.
More than 77 percent of Canada’s exports to the US and 60 percent of Canada’s gross domestic product are derived from trade.
The campaign was unprecedented and chaotic. Biden withdrew from the Democratic ticket after a disastrous presidential debate and Harris became the presidential nominee three months before election day.
There were also two assassination attempts on Trump. The image of blood running down his face, with his fist in the air, became a challenge for the Republican leader’s most ardent supporters.
Here are five things to look for as the votes come in:
Any candidate who receives 270 electoral college votes wins the presidency. Pennsylvania’s 19 votes could prove crucial in this election.
Both campaigns have indicated that the state is part of their path to victory, and whoever wins the Keystone State may only need two more states in the field to take the White House.
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What happens in Pennsylvania may also reflect voting in two other Midwestern states.
“When you look at Pennsylvania, think about how the voters of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin are similar,” said Matthew Lebo, an expert on American politics at Western University in London, Ont.
Other battlefield regions
Americans living in the other six battleground states will play a key role in Tuesday’s outcome.
Wisconsin and Michigan went to Trump in 2016 and flipped to Biden in 2020.
Michigan may be of interest to many Canadians: Canada is the country’s top export market and imported $50.9 billion worth of goods from its northern neighbor last year.
Georgia, North Carolina and the sunbelt states of Arizona and Nevada can also be important indicators of who will take the White House.
American voters will be making many decisions at the polls, not only electing the president but also members of the Senate and the House of Representatives. Those down-ballot races are crucial to determining who controls each chamber of Congress.
Democrats currently control the Senate by a narrow margin and 34 seats are up for grabs.
The Senate controls the process for presidents to appoint cabinet positions and has power over treaties. Depending on who is in charge, there could be consequences for Canada, Lebo said.
For example, Trump suggested that policy skeptic Robert F. Kennedy Jr. can play a major role in administration, including public health policy.
“As Canadians, we want Americans to continue vaccinating,” said Lebo.
Some races to watch: Democratic Sen. Jon Tester vs. Republican Tim Sheehy in Montana; GOP Sen. Ted Cruz is up against Democrat Colin Allred in Texas and longtime Ohio Democrat Sen. Sherrod Brown is up against Republican Bernie Moreno.
All 435 seats in the House will be up for grabs in this election and the result may have serious consequences for the next president. Right now the Republicans have the majority, but only a small amount of money.
Specific races to watch: Virginia’s open seat race between Democrat Eugene Vindman and Republican Derrick Anderson; another open seat race in Michigan between Democrat Curtis Hertel and Republican Tom Barrett; and the Nebraska battle between Republican incumbent Don Bacon and Democratic challenger Tony Vargas.
Trump spent his final days on the campaign trail pushing baseless claims about the integrity of the election. He also said that he should not have left the White House at the end of his last term, when he lost the election to Biden.
Whether his claims will galvanize his supporters in the polls remains to be seen, but there are concerns that it could cause chaos after the election, like when Trump supporters stormed Capitol Hill in Jan. 6, 2021.
There are also concerns about misinformation being spread by foreign actors. US intelligence officials have already identified videos showing voter fraud in Georgia and Pennsylvania as the work of “Russian-influenced actors.”
US officials say the aim is to sow division and raise questions about the election results.
© 2024 The Canadian Press
