Georgia’s disputed election results raise a red flag that Russia will win a war with the EU

In the small South Caucasus nation of Georgia, a major battle for its future is taking place.

Georgians went to the polls on Saturday in the most important election since the country gained independence from the Soviet Union in 1991.

A group of opposition coalitions determined to jointly end 12 years of rule is Georgian Dream (GD), a once pro-Western party that has changed dramatically in the past two years to favor ties with Russia over those with the European Union. and the United States.

It was a surprising change in the country, when voting always show that over 80 percent of Georgians support joining the EU. Although this is still the stated goal of the GD, the relationship has deteriorated so much due to the increasing legitimacy of the group that Brussels officially frozen Georgia’s EU elections in June, a few months after giving it.

The immediate impetus for this move was the implementation of Russian-style legislation that has been widely criticized by “foreign diplomats,” passed by the Georgia parliament in May despite massive street protests against it. (The law allows government agencies to effectively dissolve any public organization immediately.)

There was little expectation that Saturday’s parliamentary elections would take place in a free and fair environment – the pre-election period had already passed. it’s broken through government repression and harassment of opposition groups. As voting continued, widespread incidents of vote buying, ballot box stuffing and other fraudulent practices by the GD and its supporters were recorded.

The International Republican Institute, a US-based organization that aims to promote democracy in other countries, noted that of the ruling party excessive use of administrative resources, among other concerns. WeVote, Georgia’s election infrastructure, reports “over 900” incidents of misbehavior of its viewers on the day of voting.

The election results are not true, say the opposition

There was an air of uncertainty about the early exit from the election itself. At the headquarters of Coalition 4 Change, one of the opposition blocs, CBC News saw the first cheers as the exit polls – released as polls closed at 8pm local time on Saturday – indicated a victory for the opposition. However, another set of exit polls, which were approved by GD-affiliated media, showed a government victory.

Two highly contested results were decided in favor of the government an hour later, as the Central Election Commission released the final tally of votes. The final results gave almost 54 percent to Georgian Dream – a result that was immediately disputed by the opposition.

Although there is still a full investigation into the allegations of electoral fraud, experts say there is no doubt that the ruling party manipulated the results by using many methods.

“Georgia’s Dream government in recent years has seized power, seized power illegally, and used it systematically,” said Hans Gutbrod, a professor of public policy at Ilia State University in Tbilisi, the capital of Georgia. “They have hijacked all government institutions, including the courts, and now they can do what they want – including taking the country to another direction.”

That alternative would fall back into the hands of Russia, Georgia’s neighbor to the north and longtime colonial master. Moscow was quick to congratulate the Georgian Dream on its victory – “Georgians have won [today]well done!” Margarita Simonyan, editor-in-chief of the Russian radio station RT, he wrote to his X account right after the polls ended.

While it may seem counterintuitive that a country that was attacked by Russia just 16 years ago would go back to favoring relations with Moscow, the Georgian Dream party’s total control over state institutions means the authorities can ignore public sentiment, Gutbrod said.

“The ruling party uses intimidation, interference and bribery, as well as very divisive politics, to ensure that it can do what it wants — in terms of foreign policy and massive looting through corruption,” he said.

Thousands gathered outside the parliament building

Georgia’s opposition, on the other hand, is not taking the loss lying down – and neither are thousands of Georgians.

On Monday evening, two days after the vote, the opposition parties called their first post-election meeting, in front of the Georgian parliament building in Tbilisi. Tens of thousands came out to support the parties that had voted against the election results.

“They stole your vote and they are trying to steal your future,” Salome Zourabichvili, Georgia’s president and fierce opponent of the ruling party, announced to the crowd. “But no one has the right to do that. I can promise that we will stay with you until the end on this European road.”

Zourabichvili announced that the opposition party, which is its main mediator, completely rejects the election results and calls for new elections under strict international supervision.

The crowd that was there was of all ages but seemed to lean towards the younger ones. Georgian youth is the most pro-European group of people, as many say.

Student Lana Togonidze, 20, said she hopes the West “will see that the people of Georgia do not stand by this government, we hope they will not recognize this election as legitimate and will not confirm this government.”

Demonstrator Natia Chachava, wrapped in a Georgian flag, said the protesters “don’t want Russia, we don’t want to go back to Russia or go back to the Soviet Union.”

The rally left more questions than answers

Although the opposition meeting was large, it left more questions than answers. It was not clear how the parties would achieve their stated goal of new elections or how they would overcome the apparent rejection of the Georgian Dream in this move.

“Unfortunately, I don’t have much hope,” Andro Dadiani said, talking about whether the protests could bring about change. But he said he felt he had to do his public duty and attend the meeting.

Among those who have some concerns about GD’s rule are a few, such as the Georgian community dealing with 2SLGBTQ+.

“The past two years have been a nightmare for LGBTQ people in Georgia,” said Mariam Kvaratskhelia, an activist and organizer of the annual Tbilisi Pride march.

“We have been attacked many times, government officials in high positions have started to use anti-gay propaganda. I myself, as a homosexual woman, have been attacked many times by government propaganda and harassment.”

Kvaratskhelia said he sees little future for his community under the current government.

“If the GD remains in power, it will be very difficult for LGBTQ people to live in this country,” he said.

WATCH | The team alleges election violations in Georgia:

Observers are grappling with allegations of election fraud in Georgia

The head of the European Parliament’s parliamentary election monitoring team in Georgia cited examples of ‘tension, confusion and chaos’ at some polling stations, as well as attempts to intimidate voters and disrupt voting.