$30 Million Is All It Takes to Shift the Odds in Trump’s Favor at Polymarket

Four separate accounts have deposited $30 million into betting site Polymarket, swinging the site’s predictions in favor of a Trump victory. The two candidates have been neck and neck since Harris entered the race in August, but Trump took the lead in October. The news that someone or someone dumped tens of millions of dollars on the market and shook the odds is further evidence that Polymarket, and other prediction betting sites, are easy to use and not a reflection of reality.

As of this writing, Polymarket has Trump’s chances of victory at 60% and Harris’ at 40%. Who does Polymarket think will win the popular vote? Its odds have Harris at 66% and Trump at just 34%. Trump’s lead on Polymarket was strange. This location fluctuates daily, but it usually stays in line with national polls that show the election is a target.

The Wall Street Journal may have found the answer. In the last few weeks, four new Polymarket accounts have dropped $30 million on the site. That amount of money turned Polymarket’s odds in Trump’s favor. Even worse, Arkham Intelligence—a blockchain analytics group whose stated mission is to make crypto anonymous—told the Journal that the four accounts are almost all one person.

Who would throw away $30 million in Polymarket in favor of Trump? It’s a mystery that may not have an answer. It could be someone looking for a big payday if Trump wins or, perhaps, someone trying to create pro-Trump buzz on social media.

On October 6th, as money started to hit Polymarket and Trump started to overtake Harris, Elon Musk tweeted about it. “Trump now leads Kamala by 3% in the betting markets. It’s more accurate than polling, since real money is on the line,” he told X.

Crypto-backed betting site Polymarket repeatedly bills itself as the future of news. But the site is not a true indicator. It’s an indication of what sleazy gamblers are willing to bet on a coin flip.

The simple truth is that nothing can be predicted about the US election. We worry about polls, watch betting markets, and dissect every media phenomenon in the hope of predicting proof that the future is certain. But the future is never certain. Surveys are a recent invention, and despite claims to the contrary, they are not as true now as they were 100 years ago. Betting markets are just a new form of prediction that some will cling to for comfort. But look too deep and you’ll get lost in the hype. You may even lose money.

Better just accept the mystery.